Below are some past issues of SSB News. if the current month's issue is not posted and if you would like to see it right now, if you are a paid subscriber, just send me an email and request the current issue (remove the spaces in the email address if copying and pasting).

Thank you,
Ed
Admin, Silver Snowball
admin @ silversnowball . com

SSB NEWS - June 1, 2010

Last month's newsletter focused on the increasing demand and sales of Silver Eagles. This trend is continuing:

US Mint: Record sales for gold, silver bullion in May

Published on: May 25, 2010 at 19:45

"WASHINGTON (Commodity Online) Gold and silver bullion sales at the United States Mint have reached record levels in May 2010. With about a week left to go, more than 200,000 ounces of gold and more than 3 million ounces of silver have already been sold to the Mint's authorized purchaser network, Coinupdate.com reported.

Authorized purchasers are able to buy bullion coins directly from the United States Mint. They subsequently resell the coins to other coin dealers, bullion dealers, or the public, and facilitate a two-way market for the coins.

For the month to date, the Mint has recorded sales of 142,500 one ounce American Gold Eagles and 61,000 one ounce American Gold Buffalo bullion coins. The combined sales of 203,500 ounces of gold already represents the highest monthly total for gold bullion sales during 2010. The previous high for the year was 117,000 ounces sold during April 2010, when the 2010 Gold Buffalo coins first went on sale.

Last year, there were only two months when the US Mint sold more than 200,000 ounces of gold. Both occasions coincided with the first availability of certain bullion offerings. In October, the US Mint first offered the 2009 Gold Buffalo bullion coins and sold 232,000 ounces of gold. In December, the Mint released fractional weight bullion coins, which helped push total gold bullion sales to 247,500 ounces.

The pace of silver bullion coin sales has also picked up this month, although sales have been strong all year. For the month to date, the Mint has sold 3,040,500 of the one ounce American Silver Eagles. This marks the third time during 2010 that monthly silver bullion sales have exceeded 3 million ounces. In January when the first 2010-dated Silver Eagles were offered, total monthly sales reached 3,592,500. In March, 3,381,000 ounces of silver were sold.

The record for highest monthly Silver Eagle bullion coin sales took place back in December 1986 when 3,696,000 ounces were sold. This was the first full month that the silver bullion coins were available for sale."

* * *

Although I've still been able to obtain Silver Eagles there is never any warning, other than information like the news above, that another shortage is going to hit. That's why I always expect a "surprise" shortage. I continue to believe more than ever that we are in the right business for these times. We are offering a product where demand is clearly growing. We offer a product people can't get enough of. And the Silver Snowball business continues to grow.

Something to be aware of, in case it occurs, is that right now it seems every follower and forecaster of precious metals is super bullish (expecting higher prices). There are plenty of forecasts of much higher gold and silver prices immediately ahead. In a recent survey among silver traders (taken at the most recent price high) these traders were 95% bullish. A gold trader survey produced an all time record 98% bulls. And the fact that there are record sales of silver and gold coins is another piece of evidence that goldsilverbugs are extremely bullish.

Normally when a market reaches an extreme of optimism it tends to go the other way until an extreme of pessimism is reached. I only point this out because all this recent optimism implies that prices need to correct for a while (which has already started). This is perfectly normal and may be giving us our last great silver buying opportunity as the coming stock markets crashes and deflationary collapses hold back metals prices before the next major advance begins.

Because no one knows exactly when the next major advance will begin, or if it's already started, I think it's a prudent idea to continue to accumulate Silver Eagles which are the world's most popular, most recognized, most easily "exchanged" form of 1 ounce of fine silver. If deflation takes hold, as I expect, then maybe we have another year or two where silver will still be available at affordable prices.

* * *

THE MARKETS

US Stocks - Short term trend is remains down. Downside potential remains historic. Long term trend down though mid 2016. This phase down in stocks will be larger than the 2007 - 2009 decline. It has already started and the public is clueless. I expect ALL world stock markets to fall.

US Dollar - Short term trend is neutral as the USD has been consolidating it's recent gains. Intermediate term US Dollar trend remains up. This rally (now correcting / pausing) could last another year or so. Long term trend down, as is the case of all unbacked paper currencies since the beginning of history.

Interest Rates - Short term rates down. Long term trend remains up.

Precious Metals - Short term trend turned down as expected after the recent rally. Long term trend is up. At some point in the future I believe that paper currencies will have to convert to some type of precious metals backing. We want to be in silver BEFORE that happens. Interest in silver continues to grow as evidenced by the record breaking Silver Eagle sales and of course the fact prices have been rising. And while I don't expect it, if gold makes another new all time high that would turn the short term trend back up.

Real Estate - Down.

The Economy - Down. Deflation will accelerate. Unemployment should ultimately double before this deflation ends. The largest measure of money supply in the US, M3, is contracting at a rate that is only comparable to the Great Depression (see http://news.goldseek.com/PeterCooper/1275321600.php )

* * *

SSB NEWS - May 1, 2010

Five months ago I added an enhancement to our compensation plan where "odd coin sales" rolled forward to the next month. That means someone who has one member buying one coin a month receives a bonus coin every other month. Or for example, someone with 3 coins sold during a month would get paid the bonus for 2 coins and the extra coin would roll forward to the next month to be added to another "half coin" bonus to equal a full coin. Nothing is changing. I just wanted to mention that since adding this roll forward higher commission feature I have rolled forward 260 coins which means I've paid out and extra 130 ounces of silver to members so far this year. Keep up the great work and hope you are enjoying the "every sale counts" commission increase.

Last month I wrote " It feels like silver is about to pop a little higher from here." Silver prices did continue in an uptrend as they have been doing for three months. The interesting thing going on with silver is the investment demand for Silver Eagles.

Quoted from The Silver Institute in Washington, DC, from an article in their most recent Silver News quarterly newsletter:

''The United States Mint sold 28,766,000 American Silver Eagle bullion coins in 2009, an all-time record, 46 percent more than 2008 sales of 19,583,000 of the one-ounce coins.

In addition, American Eagle silver bullion sales revenue increased 21.4 percent from $306.4 million in fiscal year 2008 to $372 million in FY 2009, Mint officials noted.

The rise in demand is coming mainly from consumers who see silver as a storehouse of wealth during financially uncertain times, including inflation and a declining US dollar, as well as silver's growing industrial use as world economies improve.''

. . and from a news story posted on the NumisMaster.com website on April 8th:

''How many silver American Eagles must the U.S. Mint offer for sale before buyers have enough?

Good question.

During the first quarter of 2010, the Mint sold a record 9,023,900 of the one-ounce silver coins, but demand still exceeds supply and the Mint is continuing its allocation process among its authorized purchasers to ration the supply.

If sales continue at this pace, more than 36 million could be sold by the end of the calendar year. Such a figure would be up sharply from last year's 28,766,500 coins, which itself was a record number for a calendar year.''

A must read article is posted at:

Why Are Silver Sales Soaring? - Casey Research

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3330?ppref=CRX178ED0410A

Here's how it starts:

"The U.S. Mint just reported another record, but this time it wasn’t for gold. The Mint sold more Silver Eagles in March and in the first quarter of the year than ever before. A total of 9,023,500 American Silver Eagles were purchased in Q110, the highest amount since the coin debuted in 1986.

While this is certainly bullish, there’s something potentially more potent developing in the background. Namely, how this matches up with U.S. silver production. Like gold, the U.S. Mint only manufactures Eagles from domestic production. And U.S. mine production for silver is about 40 million ounces. In other words, we just reached the point where virtually all U.S. silver production is going toward the manufacturing of Silver Eagles."

. . . and from David Morgan, founder of Silver-Investor.com and editor of The Morgan Report newsletter, quoted in a piece on TheStreet.com website on April 9th:

''There's big, big demand in the physical market. I think there are a lot of people who are in these markets who are changing positions meaning they are going from certificate gold, certificate silver into the physical realm. I do think we're going to continue to see an upward trend in these markets.''

* * *

I continue to believe more than ever that we are in the right business for these times. We are offering a product where demand is clearly growing. We offer a product people can't get enough of. And the Silver Snowball business continues to grow.

* * *

THE MARKETS

US Stocks - Short term trend is down. Upside potential, if any, is tiny. Downside potential remains historic. Long term trend down though mid 2016.

US Dollar - The short term trend remains down. Intermediate term US Dollar trend remains up. This rally (now correcting) could last another year or so. Long term trend down, as is the case of all unbacked paper currencies since the beginning of history.

Interest Rates - Short term rates down. Long term trend remains up.

Precious Metals - Silver prices are still rising and short term trend remains up. Long term trend is up. At some point in the future I believe that paper currencies will have to convert to some type of precious metals backing. We want to be in silver BEFORE that happens. Interest in silver continues to grow as evidenced by the record breaking Silver Eagle sales and of course the fact prices are rising. I do however expect the short term trend to turn down soon as the worldwide credit contraction accelerates.

Real Estate - Down.

The Economy - Down. Deflation will accelerate. Unemployment should ultimately double before this deflation ends.

* * *

SSB NEWS - April 1, 2010

It's been another great month for business and active membership is at an all time high. Thank you.

A few things have changed in some markets and so have my short term forecasts so I'm putting that section of this newsletter first.

* * *

THE MARKETS

US Stocks - Bear market rally has continued longer than I guessed it would but that does not change the long term outlook. Although the market could start down at any time my short term indicators suggest US Stocks will make one more new high and then start down. When the topping process is done the major trend down will resume. Upside potential, if any, is tiny. Downside potential remains historic. Long term trend down though 2012 - 2016.

US Dollar - The initial move of the USD rally appears to be over. The short term trend now points down. The currencies that had been falling while the USD rallied the past four months will go up during the correction, such as the Euro. Intermediate term US Dollar trend remains up. This rally (now correcting) could last a year or so. Long term trend down, as is the case of all unbacked paper currencies since the beginning of history.

Interest Rates - Short and long term trends remain up. This means most bonds are losing value. Many will default. Stay short term. Just like all markets occasionally "take a break" in the trend, the rise in interest rates such as in the long bond likely has a little more to go before it has a correction. When you hear on the news how interest rates have been rising that might be a sign that the trend is about to reverse.

Precious Metals - Silver prices have remained in a narrow range for a while now. It feels like silver is about to pop a little higher from here. Long term trend is up.. At some point in the future I believe that paper currencies will have to convert to some type of precious metals backing. We want to be in silver BEFORE that happens.

Real Estate - Down.

The Economy - Down. Deflation will accelerate. Unemployment should ultimately double before this deflation ends.

* * *

Marketing 101

Here's a short email, or follow up email to send to prospects (the P.S. is part of the email) :

Don't know if you heard about the GATA thing and the whistle blower trader in gold and silver or not but here is the link to the interviews

This could very well send silver flying.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/3/30_Andrew_Maguire_%26_Adrian_Douglass.html

The silver business is doing great.

(your name)

(your SSB link).

P.S. In case you don't know the main reason why silver is the place to be, here's a little excerpt from a Ted Butler speech.

Cambridge House Phoenix Silver Summit 2010

Silver Review and Outlook
February 4, 2010
Theodore Butler

"Last year, I observed silver’s past, or the time period covering thousands of years up until about 5 years ago. I tried to describe how silver was always a highly desired precious metal, valued for its beauty and value in jewelry and ornaments and as money, much like its fellow precious metal gold. And, starting 100 to 150 years ago, how silver evolved into a vital and strategic industrial commodity. This transformation of silver into a modern industrial material was predicated upon its physical and chemical properties. These properties included it being the best conductor of electricity, the best transfer agent of heat, the best reflector of light, the most efficient photographic chemical and the most versatile biocide. In fact, silver is used in more industrial applications than any other metal.

Because of the wide range of uses in which silver is the preferred ingredient, it began to be industrially consumed in prodigious quantities. So great was the industrial consumption of silver, that the world used more, starting around the beginning of World War II, than it could produce from mining and recycling. That over-consumption mandated that previously produced silver, in the form of world inventories, be consumed, in addition to mining and recycling. The net result was that over 60 or 70 years, the above ground inventories of silver were depleted by 90% or more. In other words, we have only 10% in world silver bullion inventories of what we had back 70 years ago. We had 10 billion ounces of silver bullion inventories then; now we have 1 billion ounces remaining.

At the same time, gold inventories grew dramatically over the past 70 years, as gold’s industrial consumption did not develop like silver’s did, mainly because gold was and is one of the most expensive materials in the world. It’s not that gold didn’t have its own special physical and chemical properties; it’s just that you don’t use an expensive material unless you have no other choice. The bottom line, silver’s inventories were used up; gold’s inventories grew

The net result of this was one of the most incredible situations ever witnessed in world history, namely, that a comparable commodity that was rarer than another commodity could be much cheaper than the more plentiful commodity. In above ground bullion inventories, gold is more plentiful than silver, yet silver is less than 1.5% the price of gold. Common sense should tell you that such a relationship is absurd and cannot last indefinitely. Investment sense should also tell you that price relationship is absurd and unlikely to last, creating the best reason to buy underpriced silver.

Finally, despite the ease by which these relative gold/silver world inventory statistics can be verified, less than one-tenth of one percent of the world’s citizens are aware of the fact that silver is rarer than gold. I would guess that a good percent of those who do know, are in this room today."

So . . . . if you knew something that only "one-tenth of one percent of the world’s citizens are aware of - the fact that silver is rarer than gold" wouldn't it be a good idea to be in a business that should benefit as more people learn about silver? Especially since it already is.

Help us spread the word about silver while you receive silver coins in the mail and earn bonus silver coins. It's all good. Great little sideline business / hobby. And just fun to get Silver Eagles in the mail. The link again is (your SSB link)

* * *

SSB NEWS - March, 2010

It's been a busy month. Thank you for your continued support. Last month I mentioned how the silver business continues to increase. I'm sending out more and more Silver Eagles to members.

And to new members who didn't see that I wrote:

That's because business overall is up and the commission increase announced a couple months ago is generating more bonus coins to members. And in the past I've noticed more interest in silver during a similar stage in silver price action.

Please keep a long term perspective on silver in case my main forecast of Deflation Ahead comes true. The good part, if there is any good part of deflation, is you have more time to promote your site and accumulate silver. Every coin adds up. You get paid on EVERY coin sold. Any "half coin" in commission is rolled forward to the next month so every sale counts.

Back to this month - all that remains true.

What's ironic is that last month's newsletter had an article entitled THE SILVER SHORTAGE WILL COME. What I didn't expect is that after the US Mint stopped production of Silver Eagles, like they do every year to change the presses, and then some of the new 2010s came out in January, that there would be a second almost 1 month drought of Eagles.

Even now there are 3 week delivery delays at some dealers, though others have them. I did get some 2010s and then a week later when none were around I was able to order some mixed dates, which will likely be mostly 2009s. So you could get either this month. If you are hoping to get a 2010 don't worry as they'll be mainly what I should be able to send out this year.

What happened is in early February the Mint went on vacation. I'm not sure for how long but there were hardly any new or backdated Silver Eagles in stock at many dealers for most of February. There were some for sale but with future shipping dates. Dealers had very little in stock and what was in stock had much higher premiums than normal.

What I did is pay the higher prices when they were occasionally available. And more are being delivered to the large dealers toward the end of March so Silver Snowball remains one of the most convenient ways to keep acquiring silver. It's my job to do the shopping around for you. And about the fastest way to receive it as anyone looking for Silver Eagles the past 3 months has found out.

While I do expect that there will be enough Silver Eagles throughout this year, the fact that there are occasional shortages is just a small sign of what a true silver shortage would feel like. Even now I'm still seeing future delivery dates being advertised for Silver Eagles so supply remains very tight. And all this while the general public still has not caught silver fever.

* * *

THE MARKETS

US Stocks - Bear market rally has topped. Long term trend down though 2012 - 2016. First target is a decline to below the lows of last March. Eventual target is to below Dow 1000, possibly below Dow 500.

US Dollar - Near a short term peak. Intermediate term trend remains up. This rally could last a year or so. Long term trend down. This means that many other currencies will go down in value relative to the US Dollar such as the Euro and Australian Dollar. When "everyone" loves the US Dollar again that will be the time to expect the end game for it to resume. Right now, crazy as the term sounds, there is a dollar shortage. It's still the means of exchange and people don't have enough. The coming wave of debt defaults will take even more dollars out of the system, even faster than the Fed can add them. That's deflationary.

I expect the Euro to eventually disappear as countries break away from the European Union. I expect more secessionist movements in the US. During happy times countries come together. During other times things go the other way. The world could look a lot different in 5 years.

Interest Rates - Short and long term trends remain up. This means most bonds will lose value. Many will default. Stay short term.

Precious Metals - As expected, Silver bounced higher last month and may have a little more to go. Short term trend down should resume. Long term trend is up. I consider corrections in metals a gift that gives us more time to accumulate silver while it's still affordable. At some point in the future I believe that paper currencies will have to convert to some type of precious metals backing. We want to be in silver BEFORE that happens.

Real Estate - Down.

The Economy - Down. Deflation will accelerate. Unemployment should ultimately double before this deflation ends.

* * *

SSB NEWS - February 1, 2010

The silver business continues to increase. I'm sending out more and more Silver Eagles to members. That's because business overall is up and the commission increase announced a couple months ago is generating more bonus coins to members. And in the past I've noticed more interest in silver during a similar stage in silver price action.

* * *

Here is an article you might include or use as a follow up in your marketing for Silver Snowball -

THE SILVER SHORTAGE WILL COME

By Israel Friedman

(Israel Friedman is a friend and mentor to Theodore Butler. He has followed silver for many decades. He has written articles for us in the past. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views.)

Based on the supply and demand situation of silver, it's only a question of time when a silver shortage will come. Nobody can predict exactly when this is going to happen, but we have more and more signs that those who control the price of silver are sweating to balance the supply.

The biggest question I have is, will the shorts be successful to cover their short position on time? Right now the CFTC seems to want to force all the manipulators to get in line by making them obey new rules of position limits, but I feel that the banks who are the big shorts will be exempt. Mr. Butler thinks that the CFTC will do the right thing, but I am skeptical. We argue about this a lot, as we both have strong opinions.

If the banks will not be forced to cover their short positions, only a true shortage in silver will bring the right price. Be prepared for that to happen. How much will silver be worth in a shortage situation? It's tricky to calculate, because a real shortage has never happened in silver history. But it is how you must think. My own thoughts go back to what some things cost during and after World War II in Europe. When there is not enough of something is when you see real crazy prices.

So I will give you my calculation. It will be a gradual explosion of prices and slowly the users and the new investors will eat up the world visible silver, which today is around 500 million ounces. In my calculation the first 100 million ounces of visible silver will disappear at a price of $60 to

$100 an ounce. The second 100 million ounces will disappear by $250, and the third 100 million ounces will disappear between $250 and the price of gold ounce for ounce.

We will be left with 200 million ounces of silver which the owners will be not taking profits on at any price. The bullion in private hands I calculate will be the first to take profits, but Silver Eagle holders will hold for the long run. I still believe that Silver Eagles will do the best investment-wise and I will not be surprised that at one point the Eagle price will trade much higher than the price of silver in a bubble mania.

I am a fanatic silver believer and what I write is only my private belief. There are not many believers in silver. Just look at CNBC, the newspapers, other media, and gold investors. Hardly ever a good word on silver. Silver for them is a forgotten metal. One day they will be shocked when the shortage of silver will come and the price will go up and then gold will be a forgotten sister. There is more gold in the world than silver, so parity in prices is a must.

I think Ted Butler spoke the truth in a recent speech he gave: “The supply/demand set up in silver, which has evolved over an incredibly long period of time, has been one continuous process promising to culminate in an explosion in price at some point. Quite simply, we are rapidly approaching that defining moment when there just won’t be enough physical material to go around at anything but rapidly escalating prices. Those escalating prices will encourage and drive others, including industrial consumers, to enter what should become a buying frenzy. Superimpose upon that the sudden destruction of a decades-old downward price manipulation and you have all the necessary ingredients for a price event that will be referred to forever.”

I would like to congratulate my friend Mr. Butler for releasing a newsletter on silver, and I hope it will become the No. 1 newsletter for the metal market.

* * *

Back to my opinion of what's really going on.

Last month I said of the US Stock Market "US Stocks - Bear market rally is topping. Long term trend down though 2012 - 2016. First target is a decline to below the lows of last March."

On Jan 15 I added this:

(Jan 15 update to this month's SSB News - I think the US Stock Market corrective rally finally peaked yesterday, Jan. 14. While the first decline is to below the March lows it should eventually go much lower. My final target for the bear market is below Dow 1000.)

There is now much evidence in that the Bear Market rally in US stocks did peak in January 2010.

I assume that anyone reading my newsletters and buying silver is not in stocks but maybe you are and hadn't thought much about what your retirement funds are invested in. Maybe you do own mutual funds through a work 401K or in some other form. Maybe you were told they were safe or conservative or diversified between stocks and bonds. Are they?

I could go into a long newsletter about the technical evidence that the rally from last March (as we guessed correctly guessed in this newsletter) through January was just a temporary pause in the decline that started in October 2007 (which was also called in SSB News). I could point out that although history usually doesn't repeat in exactly the same way, it's interesting that in order to fool the most number of investors the rally we just had was almost exactly the same type of retracement rally in percentage of time and price that occurred after the 1929 stock crash. Among other evidence is that financial advisors were even more (incorrectly) bullish at this top than they were at the 2000 and 2007 tops. And the momentum of stocks rising slowed down (like a ball thrown in the air slows down before it changes direction and starts to fall) just like what usually happens at market tops as fewer and fewer stocks participate in the rally and investors become complacent as the market creeps higher. But I don't want to put you to sleep.

As no one has a crystal ball there are no guarantees that I'll continue to be on the correct side of significant trend changes. That said my guess is that 2010 will go down as a very bad year for the US stock market (and most other ones as this is a worldwide credit contraction). I continue to believe that the past 30 or so years has been a large top of a 200 year rally and the needed correction will have to be enough to get people thinking that they will never again in their lifetime put a cent into any type of stock. A move to below Dow 1000, possibly below Dow 500 would accomplish that. And of course that will be a good time to start buying stocks.

Here are my brief guesses about the direction of the markets:

THE MARKETS

US Dollar - Intermediate term trend remains up. The rally could last a year or so. Long term trend down. This means that many other currencies will go down in value relative to the US Dollar such as the Euro and Australian Dollar. When "everyone" loves the US Dollar again that will be the time to expect the end game for it to resume. Right now, crazy as the term sounds, there is a dollar shortage. It's still the means of exchange and people don't have enough.

Interest Rates - Short and long term trends remain up. This means most bonds will lose value. Stay short term.

Precious Metals - Short term trend remains down though we are due for a bounce here. Long term trend is up. I consider corrections in metals a gift that gives us more time to accumulate silver while it's still affordable. At some point in the future I believe that paper currencies will have to convert to some type of precious metals backing. We want to be in silver BEFORE that happens.

Real Estate - Down.

The Economy - Down. Deflation will accelerate. Unemployment should ultimately double before this deflation ends.

* * *

Observation - As you might have noticed, or will when you get your order, we have fancy new mailing labels. With the new postage program I use I can check the what rules every country has regarding Prohibitions and Restrictions on what can be mailed. So in checking rules regarding coins for a member in Ireland I found this.

Prohibitions for mailing to Ireland: "Coins minted in a foreign country, except gold and silver."

So if you are mailing any coins to Ireland they won't accept any imitation coin money. It has to be silver or gold. Smart country.

* * *

SSB NEWS - JANUARY 1, 2010

The silver business is doing very well. The public is in the early stages of waking up and becoming aware that we live in interesting times. While many businesses continue to slow down, the silver business is the place to be. Below are some articles and links that are good to review. While I agree with the general theme of most of them, you may also note that the are all a bit "one-sided" with expectations for inflation, hyper-inflation, currency collapse etc. While I do expect a currency collapse at some point in the future I believe that is several years away which gives us time to continue to accumulate silver while it's still available - before the shortage hits.

Please keep a long term perspective on silver in case my main forecast of Deflation Ahead comes true. And as announced last month, you get paid on EVERY coin sold. Any "half coin" in commission is rolled forward to the next month so every sale counts.

* * *

Use any of these articles and videos you want in your marketing for Silver Snowball -

Here's what many experts are saying:

Video on the Dollar Bubble:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZA0qNsf4m0

New Rich Dad video on Silver - #1 Investment Today

http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid14599856001?bctid=39618165001

. . . and from David Fessler, in a posting on CommodityOnline on December 3rd:

''Most fund managers won't touch silver with a 10-foot pole. The reason? At around $9 billion, the size and liquidity of the silver market is roughly 20 times smaller than the gold market.

However, it might be a mistake to ignore silver. With supplies continuing to fall and demand continuing to rise, the metal could very well make a very dramatic move to the upside over the next three to six months -- even if gold prices fall.

Then there's Jim Rogers . . .

As recently as October, Rogers, founder of the Quantum Fund, suggested that the U.S. dollar will continue its decline and that hard assets like gold, silver and agricultural products represented good value in the upcoming inflationary environment.''

''A deteriorating U.S. dollar suggests that while gold's meteoric rise still has room to run, silver's run is yet to get started.''

So… Where Did All The Silver Go?

The vast amount of available silver 95% to be exact is not used for coinage. Rather it flows into the arms of industry. There is a massive appetite for the white metal, which has more uses than WD-40.

Silver…

Coats energy efficient windows, compact discs and DVDs…

Fires up Plasma TV screens, washing machines and vacuum cleaners…

Plays a key role in silver-oxide batteries (which are replacing lithium in many applications)…

And its anti-bacterial powers make it a popular agent in hospital needles, stethoscopes, furniture, door handles and paper files.

Unlike other precious metals, when silver is used up, it can't be easily reclaimed or recycled. It's been said that 90% of the silver ever mined has been used up… gone forever.

That fact is backed up by the commodities research firm, CPM Group. Recently, they issued a report that claimed there were 12 billion ounces of silver in the world in 1900. By 1990 that amount collapsed to approximately 2.2 billion ounces. And this year, that figure has declined to less than 1 billion ounces in aboveground-refined silver.

Could new supplies be discovered? Of course. Just as the Brazilian giant, PetroBras tapped a wealth of oil miles below sea level, we could see new supplies of silver come onto the market.

But I wouldn't bet on a major discovery any time soon.

According to James Blanchard, III, winner of the von Mises award from the Ludwig von Mises Institute, The richest silver deposits are nearest the surface of the earth. The deeper mines go, the less silver they tend to produce.

In other words, it's likely that all the primary silver mines in the world have been discovered.

Silver vs. Gold

While I still believe gold is a better long-term store of wealth than silver I cannot deny the fact that silver can appreciate far more quickly than gold.

Case in point:

On June 21, 1982: Silver traded at $4.98 an ounce, and gold at $301. By February 18, 1983, eight months later, gold had risen to $505.70 (a 68% increase), while silver had soared to $14.71 (a 195% increase)… nearly three-times better than gold.

On January 22, 1979: Gold closed at $233.40, while silver closed at $6.39. One year later, gold had gained 253%; silver 588%!

In 1965: You could buy silver for $1.29 an ounce or gold cost $35 an ounce. Which was a better investment? Incredibly… from 1965 to 1980 gold increased 23.5 times, while silver increased 34.1 times.

I believe we are on the verge of another massive leap for silver, over the next 12-24 months.

Eric Roseman,
Investment Director for The Sovereign Society

From Congressman Ron Paul, in his weekly ''Texas Straight Talk'' column on his House of Representatives website, posted on December 14th:

"Because of legal tender laws that force acceptance of the dollar, the Fed has absolute power over the currency. This absolute power is leading to the absolute corruption of our currency. The money supply has doubled in the last year or so, which is extremely dangerous. The banks seem to be hoarding liquidity now but once these dollars make their way into the economy, hyperinflation and economic chaos will be a real possibility.

Every time hyperinflation rips through an economy, the middle class gets completely wiped out. It is very alarming to watch the purchasing power of an entire life savings reduced to that of a few pennies. Those savings represent years of real labor, real time, effort and sacrifice exchanged for corruptible pieces of paper that politicians and bankers can destroy at whim.

Legal tender laws force the people to become subject to this risk for the benefit of the rulers. Artificial demand for currency allows the authorities to create arbitrary amounts of it to pay for wasteful projects, like frivolous wars and an ever-expanding public sector. This saps the private economy of jobs and purchasing power, yet the temptation proves too great for politicians, time and time again. Our government is no different. Although our dollar has taken nearly a century to lose 98% of its purchasing power, the fact that we are all obliged to participate in this slow burn of the economy on pain of imprisonment is anathema to the principles of liberty.''

. . . and from Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, editors of The Aden Forecast, writing in their December issue, :

''Silver has had a great rise this year, gaining 50%. Better yet, it???s gained 119% since its November 08 low (more than gold's 72% gain), an impressive rise as it approaches its 2008 high. Once this high at $20.78 is surpassed, silver will have erased all of last year's losses. It practically has already.

Silver is very cheap versus gold and it's a much smaller market . . . 21 times smaller than the gold market . . . currently at a $9 billion market capitalization. There are, for example, over 200 companies in the S&P500 with a market cap larger than all of the silver producers.

This makes it a potentially explosive market, especially as the global economy continues to grow. This is the key. Silver moves with gold, but it tends to outperform gold during strong economic times.

Silver's [in a] strong uptrend and a solid bull market is underway above $13.70. Its leading indicator is also bullish with plenty of room to rise further.''

* * *

Back to my opinion of what's really going on.

THE MARKETS

I was too early in calling for the top in the US stock market's Bear Market Rally. But if you've been following my other calls then you may have noticed that they have been reasonably accurate. Were you reading anywhere else the past few months that the Dollar was bottoming? After saying the US Dollar was going to start going up, it finally has and that's significant as several financial markets have been moving opposite the US Dollar the past few years. Interest rates have been rising as expected. The short term trend in precious metals finally turned down (another bit too early call).

US Stocks - Bear market rally is topping. Long term trend down though 2012 - 2016. First target is a decline to below the lows of last March.

US Dollar - Intermediate term trend has turned up. The rally could last a year or so. Long term trend down. This means that many other currencies will go down in value relative to the US Dollar such as the Euro and Australian Dollar. When "everyone" loves the US Dollar again that will be the time to expect the end game for it to resume.

Interest Rates - Short and long term trends remain up. This means most bonds will lose value. Stay short term.

Precious Metals - Short term trend down. Long term trend is up. I consider corrections in metals a gift that gives us more time to accumulate silver while it's still affordable.

Real Estate - Down.

The Economy - Down. Deflation will accelerate.

* * *

SSB NEWS - December 1, 2009

SSB NEWS - DECEMBER 1, 2009

Dear Silver Snowball Member,

It's hard to stop a speeding silver bullet. Silver has been quietly rocketing ahead playing catch up with gold's breakout to new all time highs.

Silver and gold could be quite volatile over the next month or two causing even more interest in silver and your SSB business.

Super News - Silver Snowball Commissions Increase. Earn More Coins. You now get paid on EVERY coin sold. "Odd" coins roll forward starting this month. For example, if you have only one member buying one coin a month you will be paid "1/2 a coin". I'll do that by carrying forward that 1/2 coin commission to the next month so once two coins have been bought you will be paid a bonus coin. As another example, if you had 3 coins sold during a month then you'll be paid the 1 coin bonus for 2 of the coins and the "odd" coin sale will be carried forward to the next month. This will increase the bonus coin commissions for many members. Now it's worth going out and getting that 1 extra sale. Or perhaps enrolling a family member so you can start earning bonus coins.

I let a member know about this change and here's how they reacted:

"Hey the carrying forward is HUGE! That's a great selling point for the program. So basically
even if you sign up just one person you earn a coin from him or her every other month!
That's awesome. I think that will really help out in keeping people enrolled in the program."

and later . . .

"It really is a huge advantage to the system because someone that refers just one person can earn a free coin every couple months. Kudos to you for taking it up a notch again."

If you have any personal thoughts on our paying-you-more commission increase, perhaps something that might go on the testimonial page, please send it.

Silver Eagles disappear overnight. Insta-shortage

The big news is silver shortages and especially Silver Eagle shortages have happened - VIRTUALLY OVERNIGHT.

One example of this is that my favorite supplier usually has about 50 mint boxes (of 500) Silver Eagles in stock. In early November they had 80 boxes, and around mid November they had 120 boxes for a week or so . . . until I looked on "The Day The Silver Died" (November 23) and quite suddenly they were SOLD OUT of mint boxes. They had a few rolls left and I noticed that besides the price being higher because silver prices are way up, the premium (amount above spot price) had shot up by 35%. Again that was OVERNIGHT. And premiums keep rising. They are now up 47% and will likely keep going higher.

This likely means that a single larger buyer bought the entire inventory of 120 mint boxes overnight. At 500 coins a box that's 60,000 ounces of silver instantly "off the market". Someone decided to spend over a million dollars and it wiped out the whole supply or new boxes.

That supplier sent out a notice that said:

At this time the US Mint is out of 2009 American Silver Eagles.

The US Mint has delayed release of the 2010 American Silver Eagle indefinitely.

As I check their supplies right now before publishing this newsletter on Dec 1 they are completely sold out of all Silver Eagles. Should supplies remain non-existent for another couple weeks I may have to substitute a different 1 ounce coin but I'll try to avoid that if I can.

At another supplier I use a lot they had a notice up that said:

*2009* Silver American Eagles
US Mint Sold Out! . . very limited supply .

And a few days later there was this:

Currently Out of Stock

And they are one of the largest dealers.

From the Financial Times:

The US Mint has depleted its current inventory of 2009 American Eagles one-ounce bullion coins due to the continued strong demand, the mint said in a statement late on Wednesday. It added that selling will resume once sufficient inventories . . . can be acquired to meet market demand.

And from a coin dealer:

Silver Eagles are Vanishing

"Shortages in physical gold and silver inventories are beginning to take place again.

The US Mint has broken records this year in the amount of bullion coins they have struck and they still cannot fulfill the public's demand for American bullion coins.

Remember gold and silver are stores of value with limited quantity while paper currencies and credit can be expanded infinitely. It takes relatively very little currency and credit buying precious metals for precious metal products to disappear and prices to explode- as happened last autumn in the physical gold and silver market. A large divergence happened between the spot (or futures) price of the metals and actual metal you could hold in your hand as the metal became scarce.

Now and in the coming years we fully expect shortages of gold and silver products to become the rule not the exception. You have the opportunity of a lifetime. Are you going to take action?"

So I'll continue to "keep the silver coming to you" but between the high price of silver and the high premiums over spot caused by the Silver Eagle shortage these in demand coins are going up in value.

And though I try to make it as clear as I can on the website, welcome email, faq etc. that prices are subject to change due to market conditions, it's something I avoid doing if I possibly can. Both because money is tight these days and because it's a ton of extra work for me. I held off as long as I could during silver's more than doubling in price during it's $10+ rise the past year but it's reached the point where to ensure continues supply of silver, I am forced to adjust prices slightly by $3 per coin. The last time I changed prices was about a year ago and that was to lower them.

The reason we all like silver is that we expected that the price would rise so I suppose it's good that prices are going up. I'm still hoping that we get one more chance to accumulate silver at lower prices over the next year or two. I see two possible scenarios. Either metals will make an intermediate term top over the near term and then have a longer term correction before the "real" transfer of wealth main event begins as paper currencies collapse. . Or the real move up started a year ago is about to accelerate.

By the way, the very best time to promote Silver Snowball is when silver is rapidly rising and it starts getting hard to find. That's right now. There's no rush like a gold/silver/rush.

I absolutely believe we are in the right business for these uncertain economic times. And there's nothing like a silver shortage to make people want silver even more. Thank you for being a valued Silver Snowball member. I look forward to continuing to send you Silver Eagles.

And don't forget - you now get paid on EVERY coin purchased every month by people who have ordered through your site. This would be a great time to enroll even just one new person. You could also give a subscription to a family member as a gift.

Of course it's a great month to enroll 20 new members too.

* * *

Silver Eagles - Get 'em while you can :-) (our slogan has never been more true)

Thank you for all you are doing to help people own silver,

Ed

Admin, Silver Snowball - Keeping the Silver coming to You

P.S. Oh yea, my short term market guesses. I hadn't expected all the markets to hold up this long but nothing's changed on our "too early" outlooks which are about as contrarian as you'll find.

THE MARKETS

US Stocks - Bear market rally has topped. Short term trend down. Long term trend down though 2012 - 2016. First target is a decline to below the lows of last March.

US Dollar - Intermediate term trend has turned up or is very close to turning up. The rally could last a year or so. Long term trend down.

Interest Rates - Short and long term trends remain up. This means most bonds will lose value. Stay short term.

Precious Metals - Short term trend down. Long term trend is up. I consider corrections in metals a gift that gives us more time to accumulate silver while it's still affordable.

Real Estate - Down.

The Economy - Down. Deflation will accelerate.

SSB NEWS - September 1, 2009

This issue will focus on the stock market because it is just past or close to a major turning point.

On Oct 25, 2007 I wrote regarding the US Stock Market, "I believe the US Stock Market could be near a top of historic proportion. My best guess is that stocks have finished going up for a few years and now they will go down for a few years. Another guess is that within 2 years the major indexes will be down 50% from where they are now."

After that happened, in the April 1, 2009 issue it said:

"I'll guess that the US stock market will go UP for a few months, maybe for a year or so. Yea, I know it sounds crazy but we are due for a rally that will last long enough for most people to be convinced that the worst is over. When I think it's time I'll issue another "Sell" signal which hopefully will work out as well as my last one. "

On June 1, 2009:

"Our Stock Market forecast remains the same - stocks are in a bear market rally that probably has further to go. After stocks peak the next phase of the decline should begin and take the markets much lower than the March lows.

From last month's August issue:

"US Stocks - Still a Bear Market correction. I expect a small sell-off the first week of August and then the final rally for this move. Stocks have been in an upward correction that started in March. We are closer to the end than the beginning. Following this upward correction the Bear Market in stocks should resume and continue for 3 to 7 years."

And after that happened . . . . .

SELL STOCKS.

In THIS issue, right now I am issuing that Sell signal. Get the heck out of the stock market. Yes, it's possible stocks could go 2% higher. It doesn't much matter if they eventually go 90% lower. My guess is that the stock market will decline by 50% to 90% over the next 3 to 7 years.

THE MARKETS

US Stocks - Bear Market (upward) correction is likely over. Sentiment indicators (whether investors and investment advisory services are bullish or bearish) are at extremes not seen since the last market top in 2007. The rate of upward momentum had slowed which normally happens at tops. And while some averages could go a few percentage points higher first if this isn't "the" top, the downward risk (or potential if you are short) is severe. We are in a once in 300 year financial market correction so it's going to catch the vast majority of people by surprise. Expect stocks to go down for a few years. Here is a crazy wild guess for what might happen - Either major market averages are down 50% by 2012 and down 90% by 2016 . . . or stock averages are down 90% by 2012.

US Dollar - Intermediate term trend is now up and should surprise most to the upside.

Interest Rates - Long term trend is up. Short term trend is down.

Precious Metals - Long term trend is up. Short term trend at important juncture. I'm turning more positive mainly because almost all gold timing newsletter writers are bearish according to Mark Hulbert who tracks those things. If precious metals move up a bit more from here there might be a "flight to silver and gold safety" as the stock market falls and more bank failures make the news.

Real Estate - Should follow stock market down to much lower valuation levels. We are in the recovery right now.

The Economy - We now are at the point where the mainstream news media and official announcements are much more positive about the US economy. For example, the Cash for Clunkers program, the government making a profit on some of their (our) bank loans, real estate prices going a little bit up in a few areas. Remember I've been saying when this finally occurs "expect the opposite." So, expect the opposite.

I'm intentionally keeping this newsletter brief to stress the importance of the stock market timing signal.

* * *

Back to silver - here's an interesting chart.

Note that this chart is only though the year 1998. In today's US Dollar value the peak in silver prices would be approaching $1000 an ounce.

Buy low????????????

(More recent issues at the top. Scroll down to see previous issues.)

SSB NEWS - May 1, 2009

Last month's newsletter was a bit technical so I'll keep this one simpler.

Our Stock Market forecast remains the same - stocks are in a bear market rally that probably has further to go. After stocks peak the next phase of the decline should begin and take the markets much lower than the March lows.

By the way, as I write this late at night on May 31, the news is that June 1st will be a history making day. That's because for the first time in history a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, GM ("Government Motors") is declaring bankruptcy. An old stock market saying is "As GM goes, so goes the nation." I couldn't agree more. And while I'm suggesting that silver is not about to go to the moon right away, I don't have a crystal ball and to be prepared for national bankruptcy by owning silver and being in the silver business, just in case the Dollar does continue to collapse sure seems like a prudent thing to do. I really do feel a sense of urgency here even though I'm hopeful (and my technical indicators imply that) we have more time to prepare for the worst part of the collapse of 2008 - 2016.

Our Bond and Interest Rate forecast remains the same. Interest rates have started a multi-year uptrend. Bonds have begun a multi-year price decline.

Our Gold and Silver outlook remains basically the same. Silver has risen a bit further than I expected on this run and may have some more to go. I then expect a return to the correction that began last year and after that's over the "real" rise in price should begin. Again I caution I could be wrong. If gold breaks $1000 again but this time keeps going up all bets are off and we could see silver prices move up by dollars a day instead of pennies.

US Dollar - while I expect the dollar and other paper currencies to eventually collapse (which is partly why we are buying silver) I can't rule out that the USD is making an intermediate term bottom (because everyone "hates" it).

Marketing 101

Here's an ad you can try (the P.S. is part of the ad):

Subject line is: Silver is up 27% in May

Got silver? Got a silver business? Have you noticed what silver has been doing lately? Silver has been shooting up.

It went up 27% last month. It's up over 71% in just the last 6 months. It's currently up over 292% since the rally started.

Get into the booming silver business. This is the perfect time. Start a growing residual silver income. Get paid in real money - American Eagle Silver coins.

Because of the high demand and limited supply of silver the US Mint has been rationing Silver Eagles for over a year now. I'm seeing supplies tightening.

Doesn't it make sense to be in a business that offers something rare that more and more people will desire in the future? (The general public will jump in when prices are a LOT higher, like they did with stocks and real estate in the past. That will be the time to sell. Now is the time to buy.)

Get ahead of the curve and profit from this growing trend. Enjoy receiving beautiful Silver Eagles - the most popular one full ounce pure silver coins in the world. You also have the opportunity to receive unlimited Silver Dollar bonuses. Acquire your Silver American Eagles before prices really take off!

To start go to (your Silver Snowball site here)

Thank you,

(YOUR NAME)
(YOUR CONTACT INFORMATION IF YOU WISH)

P.S. Here are some excerpts from the recent news:

May 29, 7:17 PM EDT

Gold, other commodities soar as US dollar tumbles

By SARA LEPRO
AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) -- Commodity prices soared across the board Friday as a sinking dollar stoked fears of inflation.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index, a widely used measure of the global commodities markets, rose 1.3 percent. The index jumped 13.8 percent in May - the biggest monthly jump since at least 1975, the farthest back data is available on Thomson Reuters.

July silver rallied 45 cents.

Gold, silver surge as greenback swoons

May 30, 2009

Silver climbed the most in a month in 22 years and gold rose to a three-month high in New York and London as a weaker US dollar increased demand for precious metals as an alternative investment.

Silver futures for July delivery climbed 45 cents, or 3 per cent, on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division. The contract jumped 27 per cent this month, the biggest gain since April 1987.

Commodities were headed for the biggest monthly rally in 34 years, led by energy, as the slumping dollar boosted demand for raw materials as a hedge against inflation. The 19-contract Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index climbed as much as 1.2 per cent, extending a rally to the highest since Nov. 11. The index neared a 14 per cent rise for the month, the most since July 1974.

Silver "is very correlated to gold, but silver does have industrial application that gold doesn't," Mark O'Byrne, managing director of brokerage Gold and Silver Investments Ltd. in Dublin, said today by phone. "The 'green shoots' story is more positive for silver. It's a very small market compared to gold. Even small amounts of money coming in can move up the price a lot.''

"This trend is likely to persist as we head into the summer months and more 'green shoots' offer additional support to silver's appeal as an industrial metal," Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, said today in a note.

Industrial demand is rising for silver, used in equipment from solar cells to mobile-telephone covers, according to the US Geological Survey. The metal also acts as a chemical catalyst to make products.

* * *

SSB NEWS - May 1, 2009

US FINANCIAL MARKETS UPDATE

I hope this update doesn't put you to sleep as it gets a little technical, and speaks of a few markets, not just silver but I wanted you to be aware of some trends that will affect your life over the next few years, whether you understand them or not. And although I am writing about the US Markets, mainly because it's what I know more about, for our many international members it's likely that trends in the US Market will either affect, or be similar to other world wide trends.

INTEREST RATES - It appears that interest rates, which have been falling for a while - like 27 YEARS - have reached a bottom earlier this year and are now rising. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of interest rates. That's because as interest rates fall a long term bond would increase in value because it is paying more than new bonds being issued. Conversely, when interest rates rise bonds lose value because investors won't pay as much for an older bond at a lower interest rate when they can buy a newer bond that has a higher yield.

Check out the charts of the US 30 Year Treasury Bond yields at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ETYX&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=b&a=m26-12-9&c= Where it says "Range" click on Max to see the chart going back to the 1970s. I also like to add the MACD indicator. That stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. While I don't know exactly how that indicator works I do find it useful for seeing when trends have gotten to extremes i.e. when it's really low that's usually a bottom and when it's really high that's usually a top. I tend to simplify things when I try to recognize patterns.

Keep in mind this particular chart is showing the trend in interest rates, NOT the trend in bond prices which would flip the chart upside down if it were. Yea, I know it gets confusing but bear with me as I will get to a point here eventually.

Now that you are having fun with charts, click on 2 yr range and notice the big dip in January of this year and the corresponding big dip in the MACD indicator. You can look at some of the other time ranges too such as 1yr, 6 month etc. My point is that huge dip in interest rates earlier this year, which happened at the end of a 27 YEAR trend of falling interest rates, appears to have reached an EXTREME.

And lets just add a little common sense - does it seem like interest rates in general can go any lower? If you put money in a bank savings account you earn something like a quarter of a percent per year on your savings. Money market funds are also paying very little interest. You can lock your money into something long term, such as the 30 Year Treasury Bond where you are getting around 4% a year. You'd have to be pretty confident inflation will stay under 4% a year for the next 30 years to hope to make any money on that. The government has been printing and borrowing Trillions of dollars to get the economy moving. I've lost count of how many Trillions it is now but that sure seems like a lot of borrowing.

Just as you've recently lived through a stock market bubble and a real estate bubble and you've seen what happens after the bubbles burst, the biggest current bubble that looks to have peaked is US Treasury Bonds. Earlier this year investors loved Treasury Bonds as much as they loved real estate (at the top) and stocks (at the top). Do you sense a trend. When "everyone" is bullish that's a sign all the money that could come into a market already has. When everyone "hates" an investment they have already sold so that's a bottom. And a reminder that the Treasury yield chart I'm showing you is the opposite of Treasury Bond prices. So saying bond prices have peaked is the same as saying interest rates have bottomed. There are technical indicators that measure investor sentiment so when they reach an extreme, such as when 99% of floor traders were bearish on stocks at the recent March low, that's a sign the trend is about to reverse. Sentiment indicators reached an extreme, along with prices on Treasury Bonds at the January low in interest rates and since then rates have been rising (and bond prices falling).

You can of course form your own conclusions. And I always have to add the disclaimer that I'm not giving investment advice and you should always check with a trained professional financial advisor. But I can't help but add that "trained professional financial advisor" to me means "trained stock and bond salesperson." They will tell you that no one can predict the markets and that stocks and bonds always go up in the long term and they don't earn any money advising you to buy silver or stay in cash equivalents. They aren't all clueless but how many of these trained salespeople, I mean advisors were saying, like this newsletter was in October of 2007 that the stock market would likely fall by 50% within 2 years? I'm not always right but I do feel I've been helpful and more accurate than most the past few years in recognizing trends that appear so obvious to me but not obvious to many "experts."

So assuming you can see what I do, that interest rates have formed a major long term bottom earlier this year, what does this mean to you? It could mean if you had been thinking of refinancing that chances are interest rates are going higher from here so now might be a good time. It could mean that if you have your retirement savings in a "conservative" mutual fund that is invested partly or mostly in bonds that you should expect it to go down in value. It could mean that if the long term trend has indeed reversed that there might be a long term trend toward higher interest rates and lower bond prices.

Are there any ways to profit if interest rates go higher for say the next 10 or 15 years? Yes. You can keep money in short term investments such as Treasury money market funds and as interest rates rise you will start earning more interest. There does happen to be a mutual fund that is an Inverse US Treasury fund i.e. it goes up in value as interest rates rise and Treasury Bond prices fall. You could look at Rydex Inverse Government Long Bond Strategy - Investor Class. To see a long term chart go to bigcharts.com and put in RYJUX for the symbol. As you'll see in the long term charts it's been going down in value for over a decade since interest rates have been falling. But it's in an uptrend since earlier in the year when, if my guess is correct, interest rates reached a 27 year low.

WHAT ABOUT SILVER?

I know, you are wondering why I'm writing so much about interest rates and bonds when we are in the silver business. Yes, I still think silver should keep being accumulated. Long term, for all the reasons I usually speak of such as the fact there is very little silver in the world, that it's an industrial metal, that we've seen evidence all last year of shortages and rationing by the US Mint of silver coins, that with everything going on in the world regarding printing paper money which could lead to a severe currency crisis in the future, etc. I do think that in the long term silver could be the single best choice of what to accumulate now before things really hit the fan in the future.

Over the near term or possibly the next 2 or 3 years, I believe deflation is the stronger trend which will work IN OUR FAVOR to keep silver prices reasonable. If we all had a mountain of silver already then we would probably want to see silver start it's significant rise in price now. But most people joining Silver Snowball are just beginning to accumulate silver. I think it's great that whatever is holding the price down, whether it's simply the major trend which is currently deflation, or it's manipulation of the precious metals markets ( http://www.thefinancialtube.com/video/3135/042509-Bill-Murphy-of-GATA--LeMetropoleCafe ) let's take this gift and build your silver business by continuing to buy and earn silver coins. Remember, as soon as you are earning a few coins a month you are getting silver at way below dealer cost, and of course building your collection for that time when like the real estate market was, like stocks were, like long term bonds are, and like silver will be - for that time when silver is a bubble and everyone loves it. We are many years away from that. I know many of our members are going through hard economic times. With the true unemployment rate around 17% in the US many are losing their jobs. I think for many of our members their silver coin accumulation program IS their retirement savings account. Helping people become aware of the benefits of acquiring Silver Eagles is a wonderful mission to be on. I feel we are truly helping others prepare for the future.

Here's a thought - in the early 1950s only 4% of the public had any money invested in the stock market. After all, a couple decades before that there had been a big stock market crash and a great depression. It took stocks 28 years after the 1929 - 1932 crash to get back up to the same level they were at the 1929 top. The public had learned that stocks were dangerous to your wealth and even in 1954 which was 22 years after the stock market bottomed people were still afraid of stocks. Of course THAT was the time to be buying stocks. Flash forward a generation to the 1990's and early 2000s. By then people had learned (from trained professional financial advisors) that stocks "always" go up in the long term and it's pointless to try to time the markets. So now, and for the past 20 years, 60% of the public has money invested in the stock market in one way or another. They may not even realize they do but if they have any 401Ks or other retirement plans, the little box they checked on their plan choices at work that said "balanced fund" or "aggressive fund" has their retirement savings in stocks and bonds. I pointed out in October of 2007 that it was time to get out of stocks but the public won't switch out until prices are a lot lower and the current corrective rally we are having now will sucker more people back into stocks.

But the point I'm getting to is that right now only 3 or 4% at most of the public has any money in precious metals. Probably only 2 or 3% have any money specifically in silver investments. So the silver market is like where the stock market was in the year 1954 - i.e. way early in the trend. Precious metals had a 21 year bear market from 1980 to 2001. And even through precious metals have had excellent price appreciation since 2001, the general public is still clueless. We are still very early into the trend.

Want to see an interesting chart of silver prices that goes back 600 years? Go to silversnowball dot com/ssbnews.htm
Silver has been going down in price for over 500 years, but it has now started to rally. What an incredible opportunity to buy near the lowest prices of several generations. Remember, since the beginning of recorded time 40 billion ounces of silver have been mined and 39 billion ounces have been "used up". There is very little silver. There is 5 times as much gold as silver. The pubic won't understand this until silver prices skyrocket.

US STOCK MARKET

Last month's market guess is right on track so far. Here's what I wrote:

I'll guess that the US stock market will go UP for a few months, maybe for a year or so. Yea, I know it sounds crazy but we are due for a rally that will last long enough for most people to be convinced that the worst is over. When I think it's time I'll issue another "Sell" signal which hopefully will work out as well as my last one. And I don't expect the US Dollar to immediately collapse. In fact I'll guess the Dollar will rally for a while. And although there are tons of reasons why silver should go up, I allow for the possibility that silver and gold might finish the correction they started last year. I think that's actually GREAT as it gives us more time to accumulate silver while it's still around and affordable. I'd guess you should use the next couple years to accumulate all the silver you can for all the reasons outlined in Ted Butler's article I included with last month's (March) newsletter.

SALES 101

On a different topic, I tried a little 24 hour sale to help members earn more silver. If you are on the "prospect" list you would have received it. Bottom line is that the ends-at-midnight sale worked great and 15 new members came in - all at 2 or 4 coins a month. I'll run these specials from time to time to help you. Of course the way to benefit is to have lots and lots of people who have requested information at your site so they will be in the contact manager and will receive my follow up emails that send them back to your site to join.

SWINE FLU

It's normal that pandemics occur during public mood downtrends which cause the economic downtrends. I learned this from an advisory service I've been following for more than 25 years called Elliott Wave and subscribe to several of their newsletters at elliottwave.com which is where I get most of my "deflation" thinking from. They were clearly the first to forecast the entire Great Asset Mania and the current economic contraction and have been very accurate the past few years even in their short term timing in calling trend changes. They don't claim to by right all the time but do sometimes make stunningly accurate calls. Anyway, the current pandemic is certainly not a surprise. For some reason it seems that when people are depressed they tend to get sick. Here's a link to an article about it - http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2009/04/30/Swine-Flu-and-Elliott-Wave-Analysis-Updated.aspx?code=cg So my advice is be happy and stay well.

FINAL THOUGHT

That's it for now. Hope you are still awake. The Silver Snowball business is doing great. We have a window of opportunity, perhaps for another year or two or three to help as many as we can to accumulate silver while it's still under $100 an ounce. I hope you continue to find value in my updates. I might be the only newsletter writer in the silver business that will tell you my real opinion and not always be calling for the same direction in trends.

* * *

Silver Eagles - Get 'em while you can :-)

Thank you for all you are doing to help people own silver,

Ed

Admin, Silver Snowball - Keeping the Silver coming to You

SSB NEWS - April 1, 2009

SSB NEWS - APRIL 1, 2009

CRAZY FORECASTS, (I mean "guesses")

As you might know I don't attempt to forecast markets. I call them guesses because that what all economists and financial are really doing though they'll back up their guesses with all sorts of charts and theories and other important looking stuff.

I guessed in October 2007 that the US stock market would fall by 50% within two years. In less than two years the averages fell by 54% and have temporarily bottomed in March. Good guess.

Here are my current guesses.

LONG TERM

Sometime between the years 2011 and 2015 I'd guess that the stock markets will be back near the levels they were in the 1970's and 1980's with the Dow somewhere between 500 and 1200. I'll guess that by the years 2015 to 2024 silver will be over $100 an ounce and maybe over $200 and if the US Dollar completely collapses maybe at some outrageous level like $600 to $1,000 an ounce. In today's money silver actually peaked in the year 1477 at close to $1000 an ounce. It does seem obvious that if we keep printing Dollars out of thin air that eventually they will become worthless, or perhaps they will simply be transformed into some other type of world currency.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Here's where my guesses will sound really crazy as they are probably the complete opposite of everything implied by my long term forecasts. I'm guessing that because we recently hit such an extreme of pessimism that over the next few months everything will be OPPOSITE of what most people expect to happen. While I think we will eventually get severe inflation I think that DEFLATION will be the dominant trend for the next few years. I'll guess that the US stock market will go UP for a few months, maybe for a year or so. Yea, I know it sounds crazy but we are due for a rally that will last long enough for most people to be convinced that the worst is over. When I think it's time I'll issue another "Sell" signal which hopefully will work out as well as my last one. And I don't expect the US Dollar to immediately collapse. In fact I'll guess the Dollar will rally for a while. And although there are tons of reasons why silver should go up, I allow for the possibility that silver and gold might finish the correction they started last year. I think that's actually GREAT as it gives us more time to accumulate silver while it's still around and affordable. I'd guess you should use the next couple years to accumulate all the silver you can for all the reasons outlined in Ted Butler's article I included with last month's newsletter.

Why do I expect deflation first and then inflation? Yes I know that the government is spending TRILLIONS of dollars to stop deflation. Yes, I know that implies we will have severe inflation and I believe we will . . . . but not right away. That's because there is about 52 Trillion dollars of debt that needs to either be repaid or restructured or defaulted on. There are just too many trillions of dollars that need to be repaid so despite all the money being created out of thin air, there is still a shortage of US Dollars to repay all this debt. And banks have cut back lending money combined with the fact that after decades of going into debt the public mood has shifted and people want to get out of debt so they aren't borrowing as much money. The biggest incorrect assumption that the government is making is that they assume that if they give the financial institutions lots of money that everyone will start lending and borrowing again. I'll guess that isn't going to happen so the "velocity" of money changing hands will continue to slow down and the effect will be that the value of "things" will continue to fall like what happened in the 1930's deflation and the 1720's deflation.

The good news is that whether I am right or wrong I still think it's prudent to accumulate as much silver as you can. If I'm right all that means is we have MORE TIME to prepare for the inevitable currency change. If I'm wrong and precious metals break out to the upside immediately, well at least we have started accumulating them and at least we'll be in a red hot business.

Business, by the way, has been very good lately. The websites are now automated, people are becoming aware that the economy is in deep trouble and we are providing them with a solution. Buy silver. Earn silver.

Silver coins remain in short supply, though currently not a severe shortage like we saw several times last year. The US Mint has stopped producing 38 varieties of coins they make because they can't get enough silver and gold so they are putting all their efforts into trying to make enough silver and gold Eagles. See http://goldandsilverblog.com/us-mint-suspends-production-of-more-gold-and-silver-coins/
They still have to ration them as they can't keep up with total demand. That's why the premiums remain high.

For some other background on silver, here's an interesting article - What is Silver Metal Leasing, Exactly? It explains how silver leashing works, why it is done and the eventual consequences. http://metalsleasing.com/metals_leasing_explained.php The entire website seems to have good info.

So whether silver prices go up or down from here - buy silver anyway on a regular basis. If prices go up and silver becomes harder to find then at least you have some. If prices stay low then you have more time to accumulate silver before the real shortage and corresponding price rise occurs. When everyone wants silver, like they did with stocks and real estate a few years ago, then that's when I'll suggest it's time to sell. We are a long way off from that happening. While mainstream companies are laying off people and their businesses are slowing down the silver business is booming. Thank you for your smart decision to join Silver Snowball. Hopefully my guesses about what's really going on with the economy add a priceless value to your membership on top of the beautiful American Eagle Silver coins you are receiving.

In sum - long term, nothing's changed. Short term, everything will appear to change for a while but don't be fooled by the news media when they declare the "recession" is over.

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Silver Eagles - Get 'em while you can :-)

Thank you for all you are doing to help people own silver,

Ed

Admin, Silver Snowball - Keeping the Silver coming to You
781-294-7009

SSB NEWS - March 1, 2009

First, the little news - True story: I went to my bank to wire some funds for silver. The young customer service representative typed up the wire sheet and handed it back so I could double check it. I noticed a couple mistakes, wrong zip code in one spot and she had spelt "eagle" incorrectly, So I let her know that eagle is not spelt "eagel" and while she was waiting for the printer to run the now corrected wire transfer order I pulled an American Silver Eagle Dollar out of my pocket and handed it to her while relating a few facts I'd memorized from the Ted Butler article below regarding the story of how since the beginning of recorded time about 5 billion ounces of gold have been mined and 40 billion ounces of silver but while there is still 5 billion ounces of gold left in the world there is only 1 billion ounces of silver. 97.5% of all the silver ever mined in history is GONE. It's used up as it's an industrial metal used for electrical connections such as in the computer on her desk. And I threw in the fact that each year only 50 to 100 million ounces of silver comes up for sale and how incredibly small that number is compared to all the trillions of paper dollars printed in the world and how when the public realizes this silver could become much more valuable. I also threw in another fun fact of how silver prices actually peaked in the Middle Ages in the year 1477 and in today's money the price of silver back then would be almost $1000 an ounce. (That's not in the article below but from a chart I'll probably show you sometime.) I'm not sure how much of that sunk in because she was completely FASCINATED with the Silver Eagle she was now holding. She exclaimed, "It's so heavy!" She started asking all kinds of questions such as, "Can you use this as money?" I filled her in on a few more facts about silver and expect she'll be talking about silver all day.

I can't blame her for being so fascinated. After all, she works in a BANK so she's never seen REAL MONEY :-)

And now the big news - your Silver Snowball website is now fully automated. New members get their website instantly. You are notified in real time of new prospects and new members. We now have "normal" tracking throughout the site so when members get to the sign-up page they will see your name as their sponsor. So for any prospects in your Contact Manager you are sending back to your site, just send them to your page and they can use the Return Visitors link. A list of all your members and prospects is available in your back office - except the prospects that came though the traffic exchange version of your site if you used that - and you no longer need that special version with the new sponsor tracking throughout the site. Yes, you have a back office. To log in go to your site click Member Login at the bottom of your page. Your user name is your website ID#. I assigned a temporary password to you which you can request with the Send Password link you'll find after clicking Member Login. Please change that in the Edit Your Information area of the back office if it's a password I assigned to you (i.e. if your member number is below 1275). Members with ID numbers above that joined through the automated sites and are probably wondering why all this is "big news" ! You can also edit what you want to appear as your name and add your phone number and email if you want.

And because I can now send follow up emails to people who have requested information and direct them to YOUR website you might be on that list so please don't be alarmed if you get an email from me asking you to join and sending you to your sponsor's website since at one time, if you requested information when we were using the AWeber autoresponder, then you would be in your sponsor's contact manager. Don't worry, I know you are already a member. If you don't want to get the ads I send to prospects you can be taken off that list. I may also be adding the prospects who did not come through the AWeber autoresponder, i.e. those who requested information through our traffic exchange version of the site which had the original manual response form on it. So don't be surprised if you start getting notices of some "new" prospects that are actually "old" prospects. I have to put those in manually, one at a time so it will be an ongoing project for me.

Although you probably want to go "play" with your back office, not that there's a whole lot to do but you might find it useful, please also take the time now to read the extraordinary article by silver guru Ted Butler below. It's got a bunch or really useful facts you should KNOW about silver for times you discuss silver with anyone. People really are not aware of how very little silver is left in the world. Even now the coin shortages have started again with 4 to 6 week waits for delivery becoming common. Here we go again, just like last year.

Regarding my guesses about the direction of silver and stocks in last month's newsletter - I was half right. The stock market started another leg down but silver kept going up though it might be correcting now for a while. I'm actually hoping for a pull back in price to give us time to accumulate more while the price is still low and while there is still some to be found. If silver were to jump up 5 or 10 dollars from here you can bet that every coin dealer would be completely sold out of Silver Eagles.

But back to the article below. I suggest you not only read it, but you also study it and memorize and even practice saying some of the amazing facts about how scarce silver is. As Ted says in the article, "Ive estimated that maybe one in a million knew these facts." So if you learn these facts you too will be one in a million :-) Another way of looking at it is 999,999 out of 1,000,000 people do not know these facts. I know at times when I talk to people about silver what I almost want to say is, "You'd have to be an idiot not to own some silver" but of course that probably isn't a good selling strategy or a good way to keep friends as friends. Instead, just give 'em the facts.

Real Silver Availability

By: Theodore Butler

(Editor's Note from Investment Rarities Inc.: It seems that the CFTC casts their net far and wide in search of mischief in the silver market. They've talked to everyone but Ted Butler. Its imperative that they contact him. It's hard to know what they are waiting for.)

Much has been written about the actual amount of physical silver that exists in world above ground inventories. Due to decades of industrial consumption depleting world inventories, there is remarkably little silver remaining. I have estimated perhaps one billion ounces of silver bullion equivalent exists at anywhere near current prices, and my estimates are much higher than most published estimates. Considering that the cumulative world mine production through the ages has been roughly 40 billion ounces, that means only 2.5% of that total production remains in bullion equivalent form. Thats shocking. This is one of the key reasons for buying silver, namely, there isnt much left.

I've written countless articles over the years, trying to put this shockingly small amount of silver remaining into different perspectives. Ive compared it to the total amount of money and credit in the world, namely, $11 billion of silver remaining compared to the many tens of trillions of dollars of money and credit sloshing around. Each ten trillion is a thousand times more than all the silver in the world is currently worth.

I've compared the amount of silver, in ounces and dollar terms, in per capita terms, namely, how much there is if evenly divided among the earths 6.5 billion inhabitants. For each man, woman and child, there exists 0.15 of an ounce. At current prices thats around $1.65 a person. Not much of a surplus or overhang.

I've compared the amount of silver remaining above-ground to other commodities, and particularly to gold, it's constant compatriot through millennia. I have explained that because gold was always highly valued as an investment and for jewelry, its high price prevented it from being industrially consumed, in stark contrast with what occurred in silver. Due to this plainly-observed historical reality, the world cumulative gold mine production of 5 billion ounces still exists in a relatively easy to recover form. So even though 8 times more silver than gold was produced throughout history, 5 times more gold than silver exists above ground today, due to silvers industrial consumption profile over the past 100 years.

Further, when you assign a dollar value to gold and silver above ground inventories, given the current price disparity between the two, the comparisons are even more startling. Because gold is currently running at almost 80 times the price of silver, that means there is 400 times more gold than silver in the world in dollar terms. On a per capita basis, that comes to $660 per inhabitant, compared to $1.65 for silver. In the past, Ive estimated that maybe one in a million knew these facts. My conclusion was the growing awareness of this situation alone would impact the price of silver for many years to come.

Today, I would like to look at the amount of above ground silver in a different perspective. This perspective is not unique to silver and applies to all investment assets. What I will say may not seem dramatic at first, but I ask you to think it through. I dont recall seeing these thoughts in print before. My observations are just that - personal observations that I have contemplated for many years. If my observations and conclusions are correct, it could be considered another very bullish factor for silver. It has to do with what exists and what is available.

In today's financial world, there is often very heavy daily trading of most investment assets, excluding real estate. Stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and especially derivatives are traded actively. Due to advances in computers and communications, its easier than ever to transact massive amounts of traded assets quickly. I have come to observe that the vast majority of all this daily trading, well over 90%, is just that - day trading. In other words, very little of this daily trading involves the accumulation or disposal of long term positions. Most of the trading involves quick in and out scalping-type transactions. My first observation is that long term holders are basically not involved in this daily trading.

Let me use COMEX silver futures as an example of what I am talking about, although I could use, quite literally, any other traded market. Certainly, I have never publicly suggested anyone buy a futures contract instead of real metal. Yet, even using a futures contract as an example, I think I can illustrate my point. That point is that in futures contracts, most trading is day trading.

On a typical day, maybe 20,000 COMEX silver futures contracts are traded, or close to 100,000 contracts in a week. The amount of silver that these contracts represent is enormous. So enormous that it would be absurd to think that real long-term silver holdings were actually being sold by old owners and bought by new owners. 100,000 silver futures contracts is equal to 500 million ounces of silver, not much less than a full years annual mine production.

Currently, there are around 80 to 85,000 silver contracts in existence (open interest). We know from published data, including daily open interest statistics as well as weekly COT data, that very few of the total existing open interest changes hands daily or weekly. Long term holders don't trade that frequently and couldn't possibly trade in the amounts represented by daily and weekly volume statistics. Therefore, most trading must be daily in and out trading, with very little being carried overnight.

Away from futures trading, it is even more obvious that long term holders don't trade frequently. They sit and hold. Think of how many times you buy or sell real estate, or real silver or gold, or bonds and stocks and other long term assets in a typical year. I would estimate, that over the course of a year, that no more than 5% to 10% of long term investment assets get turned over, including real estate. That's over the course of a full year. Divide that 5% to 10% by the number of days in a year and you will come up with a very small percentage for how many long-term holdings are actually transferred daily.

This brings me to what I am driving at. When I write about there only being one billion ounces of above ground silver bullion in the world, I am vastly overstating the amount actually available for purchase at any point in time. As just discussed, very little, maybe 5% to 10% may be available for sale over the course of a full year, incredibly less on a daily basis. The distinction I am trying to make is between what may exist of an item and what is available for purchase or sale. There may be one billion ounces of silver in existence, currently worth $11 billion, but there may be only 50 to 100 million ounces, or $500 million to $1 billion available for sale in any given year. Not $11 billion.

As stated previously, this phenomenon is not unique to silver, it applies to all investment assets. But because silver's inventory status is so limited to begin with, it takes on special investment significance. For example, when this phenomenon is applied to gold, it suggests that of the 5 billion ounces of gold in existence, only 250 million to 500 million ounces would be available for sale in any given year. But that still suggests a dollar amount of $200 to $400 billion being available for sale in any year, at current prices. (It's that same 400 times more gold than silver ratio in dollar terms). My point here is simple - an item with only half a billion to a billion dollars potentially available for sale would experience much less selling pressure than an item with a potential $200 to $400 billion available for sale.

An additional observation is that the actual percentage of the amount of an asset that may be available for sale is influenced by price. At a low price, less is available than what would be available at a high price. The amount of what is in existence and what is available is a discussion that pertains to the supply-side of the supply/demand equation. Low prices constrict supply (availability), while high prices encourage supply to come to market. The current low price of silver will necessarily restrict supply and availability to lower levels than the normal 5% to 10% turnover of long-term assets.

What I am trying to introduce here is the difference between what exists and what may be available for sale. While we can all measure accurately the amount of visible silver in existence (in ETFs and COMEX inventories) to the ounce, none of us can be sure of how much of that silver is actually available for sale near current prices. Just because we see it documented and visible doesn't mean it is available for sale. Even the actual owners of silver stored in COMEX warehouses, for instance, are often surprised when they discover that their silver is counted as inventory. The first thing I hear from them when they discover this, is "my silver is not for sale." That's my very point.

That this difference between what exists and what is available for sale is so underappreciated, is a powerfully bullish force for silver, simply because it won't be underappreciated indefinitely. As it is, the small amount of silver in existence is bullish by itself. That amount being reduced drastically by the reality of availability is hard to comprehend. And if your head is spinning with trying to reconcile just how little real silver is available for purchase and the current ultra-low price, look no further than the great silver manipulation. It is the only plausible explanation. Help me fight that manipulation, but dont fear it. Put it to your advantage by buying what little real silver is available.

Tighter Physical Supply?

There are a number of developments that may point to tighter physical supplies of wholesale silver. The amount of silver flowing into the big silver exchange traded fund (SLV) has been impressive since the first of the year. It looks like index funds have rebalanced their portfolios and this has resulted in the holdings of SLV reaching a new record of close to 230 million ounces, up 11 million ounces since the first of the new year.

Additionally, delivery patterns in the usually quiet January futures contract on the COMEX have resulted in a much higher than normal level of actual deliveries of over 1200 contracts (6 million ounces). This continues a pattern of delivery in the non-traditional months that started with the October contract last year. There has also been, over the past 6 weeks or so, an unusually large transfer of stored silver in COMEX-approved warehouses from the registered to the eligible category, of some 15 million ounces. The most plausible explanation is that the silver is being transferred into the cheaper to maintain eligible category because it is intended to be held (and not redelivered) for a long time. Interestingly, the amount of silver that has been transferred to the eligible category coincides with the amount (3000 contracts) taken by the raptors (the 9+ commercial traders) in the early days of the past big December delivery. I had never seen the raptors take such deliveries before.

In the "heard it through the grapevine" category, a very reliable source told me that the Central Fund of Canada issued new securities in their gold only fund, as opposed to their balanced gold/silver fund, to avoid the hassles of actually getting hard to find silver. Undoubtedly, this was a suggestion from their underwriters. If this is true (as I believe it to be) it is an accommodation to the silver manipulation, or rewarding bad behavior.

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Silver Eagles - Get 'em while you can :-)

SSB NEWS - February 1, 2009

Silver coin prices and especially Silver Eagles remain at a very high premium due to limited supply and high demand. The past month I've noticed the premiums going back up AND silver prices have been rising since the low last September. Silver prices are up over 42% since the September low. And that's just in US Dollars. Prices are up even more in some other currencies.

There are a couple new enhancements on the main page of the site, silversnowball dot com with a new chart showing just how much money has been printed lately to try to stop the current deflationary trend and return us to inflation. Gee, maybe it will eventually work and we might even get hyperinflation. And there's also a new section about our coin pricing that explains how the Silver Snowball opportunity can allow you to get silver at way below market price.

Forecasts, I mean guesses:

Stock Market - I think we have started the next down leg of the stock market crash of the past year. Look for new lows below last November's lows. Assuming that happens and the stock decline is the top story in the daily news for about a week and everyone is panicking that should be a sign that the move is ending. Following those new lows which could happen over the next month or few months I would expect a long rally. This is a bit opposite of what I'd been expecting before when I thought things would appear to get better for a while before getting worse. I now expect things to appear to get worse for the economy and then appear to be improving, perhaps for quite a while. Further out in the future, about the time all the main-stream articles and forecasts are saying the "recession" is over, that will be a sign that we've peaked and the market crash will resume.

Precious Metals - We are at a critical juncture. If gold breaks through $1000 an ounce again we could be starting a big move up for gold and silver. However . . . my best guess is that gold and silver are temporary peaking and the correction will resume. Long term I expect much higher prices with gold over $2000 an ounce, silver over $100 an ounce but it's possible that will be several years in the future, not right away.

In case those forecasts seem confusing I'll go out on a limb and say my best guess is that over the next month or two everything will go down, stocks, precious metals, real estate values, jobs, etc. - basically the trend for the next couple months is deflation.

Let's use this time to accumulate silver since it would be good to have when the US Dollar disappears and changes into some other form of currency. I would expect the value of silver when converted into the new currency will be a lot higher than the value of Dollars. And for our International Members who are seeing the currencies deflate such as those in U.K. and Australia, and are seeing precious prices at or near all time highs already I would suggest that's all the MORE reason to keep accumulating silver. For now the US Dollar has been the bubble of last resort since other currencies are in even worse shape than the US. But we've seen what's happened with other bubbles such as real estate and stocks. While gold and silver had seen a short term peak last year, and perhaps are making a short term peak now, with only 3 or 4 out of 100 people owning ANY silver coins that's hardly a bubble. When half the people you know have put money into precious metals, perhaps by the years 2015 to 2024 then THAT will be a bubble and it will be time to sell and take profits. We are a long way from that.

Last month I sent an article about the worst "expert" predictions of last year. Here are a few comments from some experts who have been correct all along.

>From U.S. Congressman Ron Paul, in this week's "Texas Straight Talk" column posted on his House of Representatives website on January 26th:

"This week the House is expected to pass an $825 billion economic stimulus package. In reality, this bill is just an escalation of a government-created economic mess. As before, a sense of urgency and impending doom is being used to extract mountains of money from Congress with minimal debate. So much for change. This is deja vu. We are again being promised that its passage will help employment, help homeowners, help the environment, etc. These promises are worthless. This time around especially, Congress should know better than to pass anything of this magnitude without first reading the fine print. There are many red flags that I have found in this bill."

"There is a lot of stimulus and growth in this bill - that is, of government. Nothing in this bill stimulates the freedom and prosperity of the American people. Politician-directed spending is never as successful as market-driven investment. Instead of passing this bill, Congress should get out of the way by cutting taxes, cutting spending, and reining in the reckless monetary policy of the Federal Reserve."

. . . and from David Gaffen, in the "Marketbeat" column of The Wall Street Journal on January 26th:

"The rally in gold has coincided with a selloff in benchmark sovereign debt around the world, suggesting that investors are becoming more concerned about the ability of various nations to handle the economic crisis.

In this tumultuous period, the U.S. dollar has appreciated against the U.K. pound and most Asian currencies, with somewhat more subdued strength against the euro. But gold is outpacing the dollar, leading some to believe that the dollar's rally may soon end as investors retreat to the safety of gold."

. . . and from Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, in remarks posted on his website on January 27th:

"On yesterday's site I listed a few of the items that may be pointing to a Bernanke victory over deflation. Perhaps the biggest plus on the Bernanke side is seen on the chart below of gold. Yesterday's $13 surge took gold above its recent declining trend line and also above the 900 dollar resistance level. Note that gold has now formed a sort of head-and-shoulders bottom. The gold action may be erratic, but it is bullish. And it's well to remember that in the process of advancing, gold is 'fighting' the wishes of the Fed and the US government. The Fed would love a bit of inflation, but it most definitely does not want any publicity about inflation because of the NASDAQ bubble and more recently the housing bubble. No, what the Fed would like is quiet, unnoticed, subtle inflation and a clear move away from deflation."

"In the mean time, gold, the "hard currency" is rising against almost everything."

"Gold -- As I suspected on yesterday's site, gold was ready to correct, and it did so today. In this skittish and shaky market, every rise in any item is immediately a candidate for correcting and for taking profits. I think this is what happened to gold today. But as I said, the anti-gold element does NOT want to see gold climbing over 900 and remaining there. On every rally, gold seems to be subject to short-selling and just plain selling. It's been this kind of a battle ever since the gold bull market started in 2001. What does the Fed want? It wants 'invisible inflation.'"

>From U.S. Congressman Dr. Ron Paul, in a posting on his House of Representatives website on January 12th:

With attention turning to the next big economic stimulus package, questions are still swirling about our economic troubles. How did we get here? How do we get out? As usual, Washington has all the wrong answers. According to many politicians, we got here by not spending enough, not consuming enough, and not regulating enough. Now government, like some mythical white knight, is going to ride in to save the day by blanketing the economy with dollars, hiring an army of new bureaucrats, creating make-work jobs, and sending everyone some form of a bailout check. The debate seems to focus on whether this will cost enough to save the economy, or if this is just a "down payment" with much more government spending to come. Talk like that would be comical, if the results weren't going to be so tragic.

The results will be worsening economic woes until we learn our lesson. But instead Congress is behaving like drug addicts who must hit rock bottom before they are ready to face reality. They are playing foolish games with the economy now because they are thinking only of political expedience.

We are at an economic dead-end and those in power are in denial. The truth is our economic problems are due to loose monetary policy, central economic planning, and the parasitic expenses of government. Unless we assess these problems honestly, we unfortunately have a long way to go until, like the junkie, we hit rock bottom."

Although the above comments mention gold it's always good to keep in mind that silver is way undervalued compared to gold and tends to out perform gold in the latter stages of any precious metals rally. Though gold is fine, silver is rarer and more useful. We prefer silver.

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Silver Eagles - Get 'em while you can :-)

SSB NEWS - Mid-January 2009 Special Alert

Because of the urgent nature of the forecast for February I felt compelled to send this to all current and past Silver Snowball members. It's a recent radio interview with Gerald Celente the originator of the term "The Panic of 2008" and now "The Collapse of 2009"

Frankly, I most sincerely hope his forecast for February does not happen as that will affect everything. But because Gerald has as far as I can tell, the best track record of trend forecasting of anyone in the world even though I hope his timing is off, in the event he is proven right . . . again . . . I felt that if I kept this from you the guilt would haunt me for a long time.

That said, let's hope he's wrong.

Learn what the future is going to be.

Gerald Celente on the Alex Jones Show 11/17/2008 P1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCM6Lcn_y0k

Gerald Celente on the Alex Jones Show 11/17/2008 P2

http://www.stockvault.net/videos/video/QjfvDWYQrGo.html

Gerald Celente on the Alex Jones Show 11/17/2008 P3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8GMWSA0yVU

Gerald Celente on the Alex Jones Show 11/17/2008 P4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqthE8JKPAQ&feature=related

Gerald Celente on the Alex Jones Show 11/17/2008 P5

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyU1_dAQBls&feature=related

Gerald Celente on the Alex Jones Show 11/17/2008 P6

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQRVbrwguYc&feature=related

Gerald Celente on gold & oil - 20081104

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQf8kJRcnQM&feature=related

My final thoughts after listening are although Gerald likes gold, whatever is good for gold will be even better for silver. Plus if the confiscation part ever happens I would think that it would be just for gold. After all, there is hardly any silver in the world to confiscate as we've learned with all the shortages this past year.

According to the experts like Ted Butler there's about 4 billion ounces of gold in the world and only 1 billion ounces of silver. much of it held by people still trying to buy more. You'd think silver should be priced higher than gold. 95% of all the silver ever mined is gone. It's used up, mainly for industrial purposes because it's such a good electrical conductor. And another new silver product in the works is the use of silver in the new silver/zinc batteries that will be coming to your local laptop and eventually cell phone. So I prefer to like silver because it's a rare industrial metal but in the event Gerald Celente's trend forecasts come true for February, some silver coins might be a good thing to have around.

I wonder if the frantic rush by the "Presidents" to get the rest of that 700 billion dollar bankster's giveaway available immediately has anything to do with what they see for February. Obama has said, "I felt that it would be irresponsible for me, with the first $350 billion already spent, to enter into the administration without any potential ammunition should there be some sort of emergency or a weakening of the financial system." Do you suppose he's been told that there could be a big problem that the public isn't aware of yet?

I do feel badly having to send this radio interview. I don't want to see all this happening so soon, but felt compelled to share it. If you don't like hearing these type of things please don't listen. I'd much rather be sharing more optimistic news and hope this forecast is off the mark.

Warm regards,

Ed
Silver Snowball

SSB NEWS - January 1, 2009

Silver coin prices and especially Silver Eagles remain at a very high premium due to limited supply and high demand. I've noticed the premiums coming down slightly over the past couple weeks. Of course silver prices have been moving up a little over that time. The net result is that the price of silver coins has remained about the same. Funny how that works!

Before getting to my normal sarcastic remarks about how little the public knows about what's really going on in the world, here's a short note from the Silver Snowball Administration Department:

Thank you for all the kind emails we've received throughout the year. We do however occasionally receive unkind ones from members with a special request who sent an email to the wrong email address which I never received, then wrote an unkind email to express their anger over why I didn't do what they requested (in response to the email that I never received because they sent it to the wrong email address - most likely replying to an autoresponse from the shopping cart or merchant account).

So . . . if writing with a customer service request please make sure it is going to either admin or silversnowball @ silversnowball dot com . I will reply to every request, usually well within 24 hours. If you do not get a reply kindly do not assume I have received your email.

I do try not to have complicated rules and regulations but have found it a bit difficult to respond to emails I've never received so thought I'd try to make it a little clearer of the procedure which is send to the correct email address and I will respond to it.

In other news - yes, still asking the programmer to finish the more automated sites with back office. There are about 5 issues they still need to fix and the company owner has sent me this latest news on 12/30/08:

Hi Ed,

I'm talking to Dave about the problem he's up against with finishing your project
so I will be in touch with you hopefully later today so we get past it and finish it up
in a timely manner.

Adam

So the automation will be completed . . . . sometime. Meanwhile, business remains very steady, orders and bonuses continue to go out like clockwork, new people join every day. At some point the public will finally notice that silver is in a bull market and your business could "suddenly" take off but meanwhile just keep promoting and building your prospect and member list.

I did make one little improvement - a few members had mentioned that their prospects could not find the Add to Cart order link that's in two places on the main page so I added a third shopping cart link right at the top. They have no more excuses about not knowing where to order coins.

And another - for members who have recently joined who would like to read a past issue of my updates I put up a page at silversnowball dot com/ssbnews.htm And since I tend to write / compile an article at the beginning of each month I'll post the latest update there too in case you don't want to wait for your monthly renewal to read it. I'll also mention it on the welcome emails I send to new members so they don't have to wait a month to read an update.

Back to the good stuff -

Being it's the beginning of a new year I suppose I should have one of those THE YEAR AHEAD type newsletters. What's ahead in 2009? Heck, I don't know. It's all a guess. I'm not an expert. If you want "expert" you can get that from the daily news. Of course most of what you hear in the main stream press and from main stream experts is either intentional disinformation or simply disintentional wrong information and bad advice. Here's an interesting article about some forecasts from the experts on last year - you know, the year when a large headline that stayed on the main page of Silver Snowball said, "Are you prepared for the Panic of 2008 ???" And to update that a bit for this year I've changed that headline, which is right under the Robert Kiyosaki video to read "Are you prepared for the Panic of 2008 - 2024 ???"

Here's the article and I'll continue my "year ahead" 2 cents worth after that:

The Worst Predictions About 2008

Here are some of the worst predictions that were made about 2008. Savor them -- a crop like this doesn't come along every year.

1. "A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!" -- Richard Band, editor, Profitable Investing Letter, Mar. 27, 2008

At the time of the prediction, the Dow Jones industrial average was at 12,300. By late December it was at 8,500.

2. AIG (NYSE: AIG - News) "could have huge gains in the second quarter." -- Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008

AIG wound up losing $5 billion in that quarter and $25 billion in the next. It was taken over in September by the U.S. government, which will spend or lend $150 billion to keep it afloat.

3. "I think this is a case where Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE - News) and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM - News) are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under I think they are in good shape going forward." -- Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008

Two months later, the government forced the mortgage giants into conservatorships and pledged to invest up to $100 billion in each.

4. "The market is in the process of correcting itself." -- President George W. Bush, in a Mar. 14, 2008 speech

For the rest of the year, the market kept correcting and correcting and correcting.

5. "No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble." -- Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008

Five days later, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM - News) took over Bear Stearns with government help, nearly wiping out shareholders.

6. "Existing-Home Sales to Trend Up in 2008" -- Headline of a National Association of Realtors press release, Dec. 9, 2007

On Dec. 23, 2008, the group said November sales were running at an annual rate of 4.5 million -- down 11% from a year earlier -- in the worst housing slump since the Depression.

7. "I think you'll see (oil prices at) $150 a barrel by the end of the year" -- T. Boone Pickens, June 20, 2008

Oil was then around $135 a barrel. By late December it was below $40.

8. "I expect there will be some failures. I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system." -- Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, Feb. 28, 2008

In September, Washington Mutual became the largest financial institution in U.S. history to fail. Citigroup (NYSE: C - News) needed an even bigger rescue in November.

9. "In today's regulatory environment, it's virtually impossible to violate rules." -- Bernard Madoff, money manager, Oct. 20, 2007

About a year later, Madoff -- who once headed the Nasdaq Stock Market -- told investigators he had cost his investors $50 billion in an alleged Ponzi scheme.

10. A Bound Man: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can't Win, the title of a book by conservative commentator Shelby Steele, published on Dec. 4, 2007.

Mr. Steele, meet President-elect Barack Obama.

* * *

Back to year ahead update - I'll guess that after the stock market rallies for a while it will go down again and make lower lows. I'll guess that the Panic of 2008 - 2024 will continue. I'll guess that silver will be higher at the end of the year than it is now.

I think what's most important to understand is the LONG TERM trend.

Here are two excellent links to articles that are well worth reading and understanding.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/degraaf/dec102008.html

The one above clearly explains where we are in the really long term cycle. At Silver Snowball our goal is to continue to accumulate silver for the long term. While it's easy to get overly exited when silver moves up or down by a few dollars, we aren't buying silver coins to trade in and out of the markets. If you wanted to do that then 1000 ounce bars would make more sense since the premiums are very low. But silver coins have their advantages. They are an affordable way to steadily and automatically accumulate small denomination silver and of course have the opportunity to earn bonus coins which many members are doing.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7934.html

This article focuses more on gold than silver but does mention silver. Keep in mind that historically during the first part of a deflationary cycle gold does tend to outperform silver. Then when the inevitable inflation kicks in, especially as I expect it will this time with the unprecedented amount of paper money that's being created then silver catches up and eventually outperforms gold for the cycle - and this is going to be the Mother of all Cycles, most comparable to the South Sea Bubble collapse of the year 1720 not just a run of the mill depression like the 1930's and certainly nothing as mild as the 1970s recession, though those inflationary times were very good for silver. So there's nothing wrong with owning gold but we like silver better for many reasons including the fact it's an industrial metal too and because of that it's been "used up" and is much more rare than gold.

The article in the link above concludes:

The inflation adjusted high of $2,400/oz in 1980 remains a conservative estimate for gold to reach in the next 2 to 5 years. Similarly, the inflation adjusted high for silver in 1980 of some $120/oz remains a conservative price target that will very likely be reached within to 2 to 5 years.

My own thoughts are yes, maybe there will be a big move in silver during the next 2 to 5 years, but seeing how long the entire topping process of the markets took in stocks and real estate (about a 20 year topping process) and seeing that deflation only began to pick up momentum a little over a year ago - I would also not be surprised to see deflation remain as the stronger trend for the next 2 to 5 years and THEN see inflation kick in. I know that's two very opposite scenarios. I've just learned from experience of trying to time markets that it's sometimes better to have a guess as to what the future will hold, but to not get hung up on exactly when a trend will reverse. What's nice about accumulating silver coins is that if prices go higher immediately then at least we started getting them when they were still available. And if prices take a few years to start their move toward $125 an ounce, well that's even better because we were able to acquire MORE of them for a longer period of time.

I started this issue with, "What's ahead in 2009? Heck, I don't know." And I really don't know what will happen next over the short term. But having been expecting this current economic mess for about 15 years, and seeing it finally beginning, and knowing I was correctly positioned for it before it began (a bit too early, but at least on the right side of it) I don't think it matters much whether silver goes up $10 in the next few months or goes down by $3. It's the big picture we are prepared for. I hope in some small way that I have helped and will continue to help you understand and be prepared for it. That's why we are in the silver coin business. It won't solve every problem but might help. I just saw a story about a billionaire who lost his entire fortune. Imagine losing a billion dollars. He was over leveraged in real estate and lost everything. Obviously he was not reading Silver Snowball News :-)

* * *

I'll repeat the comment I made last month since it still applies:

So all in all, it seems like a pretty good idea to accumulate silver coins as one way to help be prepared for whatever is coming. And so my newsletters are not all bad news, here's some good news. Because there has been so much negative press lately, I would not be surprised to see things appear to be improving for a couple months with everything that's been going down in price such as stocks, metals, oil etc going up in price. My guess is that the correction will end with headlines proclaiming the worst is over sometime in the first quarter of 2009. Keep in mind that should this happen it is just an upward correction in a longer term trend down.

Silver Eagles - Get 'em while you can :-)

Thank you for all you are doing to help people own silver,

Ed

Admin, Silver Snowball - Keeping the Silver coming to You
781-294-7009

SSB NEWS - December 1, 2008

Here's another good article from silver guru Ted Butler:

A Shock To The System?

By: Theodore Butler

-- Posted 27 October, 2008

In a moment, Id like to describe a new development in silver that should prove quite bullish to the price, but first Id like to review some continuing facts that are significant in their own right. It would appear that the confluence of many factors point to sharply higher silver prices dead ahead. Yes, I know the price has recently collapsed. Ironically, it is that very price smash that is the basis for the coming price launch higher.

Since the recent top in July, the price of silver has undergone a dramatic collapse. As proven by data released in government reports, a large U.S. bank or two sold a massive number of COMEX silver futures contracts into the top and subsequently has covered a good number of those short contracts on the resultant price decline. Quite simply, this is the single most important factor behind the price collapse. The latest data appear to indicate that the price decline is now largely behind us.

The latest data in the Commitment or Traders Report (COT) indicate a near-record shift in market structure over the past three months. The total net commercial silver short position has been reduced by approximately 50,000 contracts (250 million ounces). This is an absolutely massive amount of commercial buying, and has pushed many COT measurements to their most extreme bullish readings in years. Similar commercial buying has occurred in COMEX gold futures.

Make no mistake, this massive commercial buying was no accident. This was precisely why silver and gold dropped sharply, namely, to enable the commercials to buy at the expense of speculative long liquidation. The commercials dont do anything on this scale by accident. To think otherwise is naive. Ask yourself this - if silvers price smash did indicate we faced a long term future of lower silver prices, then why would the commercials, the dominators of the market, buy every contract they could get their hands on?

By no small coincidence, other unusual factors suggest silver prices should soon embark on a significant price rally. A notable increase in demand for 1000 oz bars can be seen in tightening price differentials between nearby futures contract months and by reports in the physical market, a marked increase in deliveries in the nearby October silver delivery contract, as well as recent withdrawals in COMEX silver inventories from those taking delivery on October futures. All are supportive of a pending shortage in 1000 oz silver bars, the industry unit of trade. When the shortage of 1000 oz bars becomes apparent, all talk that silver has only experienced a "retail" shortage, will be dashed. Coupled with the bullish COT structure, it adds up to strong upside price potential ahead.

But the sharply lower price of silver and other commodities has introduced a new bullish development that, quite frankly, I had not anticipated. It has resulted in unintended consequences that all should recognize shortly. So potentially bullish is this new factor that it appears to be on the order of a coming shock to the silver pricing structure.

It is said, in the world of commodities, that the cure for low prices, is low prices. In other words, according to the law of supply and demand, low prices discourage production and encourage consumption to the point at which the low prices are replaced with higher prices. The unprecedented deep declines in the price of silver and base metals, such as copper, lead, zinc, and nickel promise to disrupt the production of these metals. After all, no one can produce at a loss indefinitely. Almost without exception, the price of all these industrial metals has fallen deeply below the cost of production for most producers. This is not just anticipatory, as daily reports confirm continuing mining production cutbacks. In addition, smelter cutbacks, especially in China, the worlds largest refiner, have been ongoing for months.

What makes the sudden price declines so unusual is that have apparently occurred not so much due to specific supply/demand fundamentals in the metals in question, but more to general dark sentiment about general overall concerns about prospective industrial demand and credit issues. All commodities have been smashed, almost indiscriminately. But there is a highly unusual feature to the price declines. For the first time in half a century or longer, the price declines have come at a time of generally low inventory levels, in marked contrast to prior price declines.

Normally, the industrial metal cycle tops out with high prices amid high inventories. Then, the high prices diminish demand, which in turn pressures price, often to levels below the cost of production. Mines react to the low prices by curtailing production or shutting down, which stimulates demand and eats up the high inventories. When inventories reach levels too low to support further draw downs, prices rise until the next peak in prices and inventories. These normal free market cycles take years to unfold.

This time, prices have collapsed even though inventories are on the low side. Therefore, in spite of the fears of reduced industrial consumption, because of the sharply lower prices, production promises to fall faster, and the already low inventories cant support draw downs for long. Although it is not currently widely expected, even in recessionary times, shortages can and will occur if supply (production and inventory draw downs) cant satisfy demand, even though that demand may be reduced.

Separately, the resource boom over the past five years was characterized by a noteworthy lack of increase in additional production capacity of most non-ferrous metals. Now, with dramatic postponements and cancellations of new mining projects, due to economic and credit concerns, there will be significantly less production available if and when shortages occur.

The net result for silver could be profound. Not only is the current price below the cost of production for mines in which silver is the primary source of revenue, but the price of base metals like zinc, lead and copper, is also below the cost of production. Since the by-product silver from the mining of these three metals account for a full 60% of total silver mine production (400 million oz out of a total 670 million oz annually), the expected reduction in base metal production will have an exaggerated impact on silver production. Throw in the 200 million oz primary annual silver mine production and the vast majority of total silver mine production is in jeopardy. Finally, recycled silver of some 200 million ounces is perhaps the most price sensitive of all. Talk about the unintended consequences of sharply lower prices.

This is the first time since I have been studying silver that total production has been in such sudden danger of a sharp decline. In fact, it would appear to me that this could be the perfect bullish storm for silver. Please consider the facts. World silver inventories are the lowest they have been in hundreds of years, thanks to a century of industrial consumption. This is precisely at the same time of the most serious threat to production in memory. More than any commodity, silver has been demonstrating real signs of tightness, even before impending widespread production cuts.

What really sets silver apart from the other industrial metals that may quickly go into related shortage situations if prices remain depressed, is the special dual role of silver, as both a vital industrial material and as a primary investment asset that can be owned directly by investors of all means. Silver, like gold, is an asset desired by investors, particularly when financial conditions are unsettled. Copper, lead and zinc are not such assets. So whereas we can have easily see industrial shortages and sharply higher prices for base metals, even in a recession, if production declines enough, those sharply higher prices will not be accompanied by ordinary investors rushing to buy zinc coins or bars of lead. That, most definitely, will be case in silver.

In fact, as I wrote last week, it is not just that investors are likely to buy silver, there is already an historic silver investment rush in force. And this investment rush is even more significant since it has developed only in the past three years, after decades of net investment selling of silver. Again, I couldnt make these things up if I tried. And please remember, even in a recession with lower industrial demand, if users cant get the silver supplies they need, they will panic at some point and rush to build inventories.

I did not anticipate the brutal decline to below $9 an ounce. Fortunately, those who hold real silver on a non-margined basis, my consistent public advice, still hold their silver. The rise in premiums of many items, particularly U.S. Silver Eagles, has minimized the pain of the decline. New buyers, however, have just been given a gift beyond description. The collapse in price has had nothing to do with the merits of silver, but will have everything to do with the coming explosive rally. The uneconomic low price will shock the price higher.

* * *

And here's information on someone who has quite a track record of accurate forecasts:

Celente Predicts Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012

Trend forecaster, renowned for being accurate in the past, says that America will cease to be a developed nation within 4 years, crisis will be worse than the great depression.

The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.

Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.

Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.
(ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW)

We're going to see the end of the retail Christmas; we're going to see a fundamental shift take place; putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree, said Celente, adding that the situation would be worse than the great depression.

America's going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for, said Celente, noting that people's refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.

Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as The Panic of 2008, adding that giants (would) tumble to their deaths, which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others. He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 per cent.

The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by plummeting retail sales figures.

The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted that within 30 years, the growing gap between the super rich and the middle class, along with an urban underclass threatening social order would mean, The world's middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest, and that, The middle classes could become a revolutionary class.

In a separate recent interview, Celente went further on the subject of revolution in America.

"There will be a revolution in this country," he said. "It's not going to come yet, but its going to come down the line and were going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: the takeover of Washington, D. C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen."

"The first thing to do is organize with tax revolts. That's going to be the big one because people can't afford to pay more school tax, property tax, any kind of tax. You're going to start seeing those kinds of protests start to develop."

"It's going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless, the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we're going to see many more."

"We're going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It's going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to. It's going to come as a shock and with it, there's going to be a lot of crime. And the crime is going to be a lot worse than it was before because in the last 1929 Depression, people's minds weren't wrecked on all these modern drugs, over-the-counter drugs, or crystal meth or whatever it might be. So, you have a huge underclass of very desperate people with their minds chemically blown beyond anybody's comprehension."

The George Washington blog has compiled a list of quotes attesting to Celentes accuracy as a trend forecaster.

"When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente." CNN Headline News

"A network of 25 experts whose range of specialties would rival many university faculties." The Economist

"Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right." USA Today

"There's not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he's talking about." -- CNBC

"Those who take their predictions seriously consider the Trends Research Institute." The Wall Street Journal

"Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark. He's one of the most accurate forecasters around." The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

"Mr. Celente tracks the world's social, economic and business trends for corporate clients." The New York Times

"Mr. Celente is a very intelligent guy. We are able to learn about trends from an authority." 48 Hours, CBS News

"Gerald Celente has a solid track record. He has predicted everything from the 1987 stock market crash and the demise of the Soviet Union to green marketing and corporate downsizing." The Detroit News

"Gerald Celente forecast the 1987 stock market crash, green marketing, and the boom in gourmet coffees." Chicago Tribune

"The Trends Research Institute is the Standard and Poors of Popular Culture." The Los Angeles Times

"If Nostradamus were alive today, he'd have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente." New York Post

So there you have it - hardly a nutjob conspiracy theorist blowhard now is he? The price of not heeding his warnings will be far greater than the cost of preparing for the future now.

To view the interview with Gerald Celente, access the site below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46MEqEgdLTg

* * *

So all in all, it seems like a pretty good idea to accumulate silver coins as one way to help be prepared for whatever is coming. And so my newsletters are not all bad news, here's some good news. Because there has been so much negative press lately, I would not be surprised to see things appear to be improving for a couple months with everything that's been going down in price such as stocks, metals, oil etc going up in price. My guess is that the correction will end with headlines proclaiming the worst is over sometime in the first quarter of 2009. Keep in mind that should this happen it is just an upward correction in a longer term trend down.

Silver Eagles - Get 'em while you can :-)

Thank you for all you are doing to help people own silver,

Ed

Admin, Silver Snowball - Keeping the Silver coming to You
781-294-7009

Interesting Report

Why Silver is better than Oil as an Investment
(Silver's cheaper, more rare, and not nearly as dirty, or heavy!)

Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel

1. There is a 40-year supply of oil in the ground. There is a 14-year supply of silver in the ground. Therefore, silver is the better investment.

If "peak oil" is true, then every peak oil nutcase out there ought to be several times more worried about "peak silver", since silver reserves will run out sooner.

If oil is used in more kinds of products than any other commodity on earth, then silver is the second most used commodity, used in electronics of all kinds. And if silver is used up first, then we won't have all the electronic machines needed to go and get the oil!

But the "peak oilers" are not so worried about silver. Why not? I can only guess, but it is an educated guess based on extensive reading of their works over the years. I suspect it is because they are ignorant of silver, ignorant of economics, irrationally fearful, and worship government and "mother earth" instead of God.

2. In 1970, there was a 10-year supply of oil in the ground. We did not run out in 1980. We explored, and found oil. Mankind has explored for oil and produced oil only for 150 years or so, which creates extra fear of uncertainty (unlike silver and gold's 5000 year history). Since we did not run out in 1980, then we will not run out in 2050, over 40 years from now.

3. If it's not about "running out" but rather, running out of the "cheap stuff", fine, I agree! If we run out of "cheap oil", we will run out of "cheap silver" far, far sooner, so silver is the better investment, and will outperform oil.

4. The silver to oil ratio: In 1980, at the former peak prices for oil and silver, oil cost $43/barrel and silver was $50/oz. An oz. of silver was worth more than a barrel! At the bottom of the market around 2000, oil was $10/barrel and silver was around $5/oz. This implies a price for silver of somewhere between $55-110/oz., with oil prices remaining stable. If oil doubles from here, then silver will go up ten times, to $220. Therefore, silver is the better investment.

5. The public will never buy 100 barrels of oil to store on their front lawn, at $110 each, to save $10,900 worth of wealth. The public will buy a $15,000 bag of silver to store in the closet, or home safe.

6. The silver market is orders of magnitude smaller than the oil market, and will move far higher with a smaller amount of money moving into silver.

World oil supply is 85 million barrels of oil per day x $109 = $9.2 billion/day, or 31 billion barrels/year, which is $3.4 trillion per year.

World silver mine supply is 650 million ounces per year x $21 = $13.6 billion/year.

In the long run, if paper money fails, the world might have to pay for oil with silver. (Gold would be used for everything else). In that case, that implies that an ounce of silver would buy 47 barrels of oil (31,000 / 650 = 47), which implies a price for silver of $109 x 47 = $5200/oz.

Interestingly, even gold is a much, much better investment than oil, because all the gold ever mined in all of human history is about 5 billion ounces, which, at $1000/oz., is $5 trillion, which would barely pay for the world's annual oil consumption of $3.4 trillion. But as you all know by now, silver is much better than gold.

7. About 70% of the world's oil is supplied by national governments that have confiscated private oil discoveries. Therefore, oil is a risky investment. National governments generally do not spend money on exploration or development; they spend nationalized oil profits on wasteful social programs to maintain the power of the government thieves.

Of the other 30% of the world's oil, the "free world's" oil, about 9 cents per gallon of gas goes to the oil companies as profit, and about 51 cents per gallon goes to governments in taxes. Thus, 51 out of 60 cents, or 85% of the "free world's" oil has been nationalized, too. Therefore, oil is an extremely risky investment. Not only is the price of oil too high, but governments steal most profits that exist in the industry, world-wide. Investors ought to worry far more about governments stealing an oil discovery, than a silver discovery.

While oil prices moved up over ten times from $10/barrel to $110/barrel since 2000, Exxon Mobile stock barely doubled from $40 to $85. This shows that the "big oil" companies are not "getting rich" off of high oil prices, due to excessive government taxation. (Chevron has also gone from $40 to $85 since 2000, and BP has done much worse, going from $60 to $64 since 2000!)

If only 1% of gross world oil profits were spent on silver, instead of being stolen by governments, that would be: 31,000 million barrels x $110 x .01 = $34 billion. Since total annual investment demand for silver is about $1 billion, then I estimate that much money would move the silver price up to well over $200/oz.

Yes, 1% of gross world oil costs would probably drive up silver prices over ten times!

8. I believe "Peak Oil" is a fraud. If the world does hit a "Peak Oil" temporary mini trend sometime in the next 50 years, it will be due to worsening government theft, nationalizations, confiscations, taxes, and wars, not lack of oil in the ground in the world, and all of those things would be very bad for investors in oil.

9. I have never seen a peak oil proponent advocate free market solutions; nor do they invest their own money into alternatives (some of them are broke!); they always call for more government power, and more government controls, and more government "solutions". Therefore, their entire argument is as fraudulent as government itself.

10. I believe "Manmade Global Warming" is a fraud, designed to increase government control, or even "justify" the "global solution" of world government. We may be in a mini warming cycle, but 30 years ago the world was in a cooling cycle and the fear of the day was of an impending Ice Age. If "manmade global warming" is true (and it is not), there should be more of it; we would save on heating bills; and be able to plant more crops, and enjoy a wider variety of good wines from all the vineyards that could be planted farther north, like several hundred years ago.

11. Silver is not a fraud, and is the antidote to the fraud of the dollar, and the antidote to excess government power, and government theft, which is the real problem in the world, not "peak oil" or "global warming".

12. Silver is not confiscable. This is why silver is money; it is private ownership of wealth, it is true wealth, it is owned anonymously, and is the antidote to theft through inflation or confiscation. There is not enough silver to confiscate, because the silver market is too small. All the silver in the world is worth perhaps $20 billion, which is infinitesimally small compared to the budget of the U.S. government. If the government confiscated silver, because it was "worth it" for them, it would imply that silver was worth about $10,000 per ounce.

13. There is no "oil problem". It is an energy problem. If oil prices get too high, the free market will provide energy through other means; wind, or solar, or nuclear, or coal liquefaction, or geothermal, or further oil exploration. I suspect the U.S. hit peak oil in 1970 because we abandoned silver coinage in 1964, and abandoned gold in 1971, driving up all domestic prices and severely distorting world economics. And with paper money, it became cheaper to buy foreign oil with fraudulent paper, rather than explore and produce it at home.

14. There is a 300+ year supply of coal. Coal liquefaction technology can make liquid fuel from coal. This is old, reliable technology, and dates from before World War II, both in Japan and Germany.

15. Most solar energy that comes to the earth is wasted. Look at the amount of solar space available in the deserts of the world. The Sahara is a very big place. All of the world's energy needs could probably be satisfied with a solar panel that covered 1/4 of the Sahara.

16. Yes, I know about the Hunt brothers. Do you know the full story? They tried to protect their oil profits in silver. Their oil was stolen by Libya. I believe that the mistake of Nelson Bunker Hunt, who is alive today, is that he tried to borrow money to buy more silver than they could afford, so they lost money when it went down from $50/oz. Don't make the same mistake. Don't buy silver on leverage, and don't let other people hold your silver for you.

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Thanks for reading,

Ed Freeman
Admin, SSB